FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso
Match details. Liga 1, Clausura - 12. Kick-off is Sun 18 Oct, 00:00 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio Monumental de la UNSA, Arequipa.
What's at stake. FBC Melgar are 7th on 19 points after 11 games, level on points with Juan Pablo II College, level on points with Alianza Lima. A win would take them above Juan Pablo II College. Deportivo Garcilaso are 3rd on 22 points after 11 games, level on points with Sporting Cristal, level on points with Alianza Atletico. A win would take them above Sporting Cristal.
Form. FBC Melgar have won four, drawn four and lost two of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D W W L. In this competition FBC Melgar have gone D D W W L D. Deportivo Garcilaso have won seven, drawn one and lost two of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L W W. In this competition Deportivo Garcilaso have gone L W L W W W.
The numbers. FBC Melgar score 1.8 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. FBC Melgar average 17.8 shots (6.5 on target), 6.0 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 55% of the ball. Deportivo Garcilaso score 1.8 and concede 0.6 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets and three games without a goal. Deportivo Garcilaso average 15.8 shots (6.0 on target), 5.0 corners and 2.2 cards a game, with 47% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last seven meetings FBC Melgar have won one, drawn three and lost three. Four of the seven went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in six. In the last four, two were drawn and Deportivo Garcilaso won two. The last time they met, on 28 Apr 2026, it finished FBC Melgar 0-1 Deportivo Garcilaso: FBC Melgar had 11 shots to 10, 58% of the ball, six yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 21% against the records' 42%. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 49%; four of the last seven meetings went over 2.5.
The read. No firm call: Deportivo Garcilaso are the better side, but not at this price. Deportivo Garcilaso are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour Deportivo Garcilaso.
The bets. No bet on this one: too close to call. Leave: FBC Melgar Over 0.5 goals (Deportivo Garcilaso's own games don't back it (5 of 10)). Predicted score: FBC Melgar 1-1 Deportivo Garcilaso (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).