Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II Tilburg
Match details. Eredivisie, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel, Rotterdam. The referee is Serdar Gozubuyuk.
What's at stake. Sparta Rotterdam are 14th on 6 points after 8 games, 2 points behind Utrecht, level on points with Telstar. A win would take them above Utrecht. Willem II Tilburg are 18th on 2 points after 8 games, 1 point behind ADO Den Haag. A win would take them above ADO Den Haag.
Team news. Sparta Rotterdam are without S. Mito (injury), M. van Bergen (inactive), S. Mito (injury), M. van Bergen (inactive). Willem II Tilburg are without A. Culum (foot injury), T. Didillon Hodl (hamstring injury), J. Hoogma (knee injury), A. Lachkar (groin injury), K. Boogaard (knock), A. Culum (foot injury).
Form. Sparta Rotterdam have won one, drawn three and lost six of their last ten, 0.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L D L. Willem II Tilburg have won one, drawn two and lost seven of their last ten, 0.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L D L.
The numbers. Sparta Rotterdam score 1.4 and concede 2.6 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Sparta Rotterdam average 11.1 shots (4.3 on target), 5.5 corners and 1.7 cards a game, with 44% of the ball. Willem II Tilburg score 1.2 and concede 2.8 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. Willem II Tilburg average 8.5 shots (2.9 on target), 3.8 corners and 1.3 cards a game, with 39% of the ball.
Head to head. Sparta Rotterdam have won all of the last five meetings. Four of the five went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. In the last four, Sparta Rotterdam won four. The last time they met, on 18 Dec 2025, it finished Sparta Rotterdam 5-1 Willem II Tilburg: Sparta Rotterdam had 17 shots to 15, 63% of the ball, two yellow cards.
The case against. Willem II Tilburg's record still gives them 29% to win.
The read. Sparta Rotterdam to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Sparta Rotterdam the likelier winners; Sparta Rotterdam are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Sparta Rotterdam; the meetings favour Sparta Rotterdam. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 81%. Four of the last five meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.15, 80% on the records (Sparta Rotterdam: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; Willem II Tilburg: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 away). Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Sparta Rotterdam 2-1 Willem II Tilburg (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).