Atletico Ottawa vs Forge FC Hamilton
Match details. Canadian Premier League, Group Stage. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 18:00 Lagos time. It is played at TD Place Stadium, Ottawa.
What's at stake. Atletico Ottawa are 3rd on 43 points after 26 games, 11 points behind Forge, 6 points clear of Vancouver FC. Forge FC Hamilton are 2nd on 54 points after 26 games, level on points with Cavalry FC, 11 points clear of Atlético Ottawa. A win would take them above Cavalry FC. Atletico Ottawa have nothing left to play for, while Forge FC Hamilton need the win.
Form. Atletico Ottawa have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W L L. In this competition Atletico Ottawa have gone W W W L L D. Forge FC Hamilton have won five, drawn four and lost one of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D D D. In this competition Forge FC Hamilton have gone W W D D D W.
The numbers. Atletico Ottawa score 1.8 and concede one a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Atletico Ottawa average 9.6 shots (3.6 on target), 5.2 corners and 2.8 cards a game, with 52% of the ball. Forge FC Hamilton score 2.2 and concede 0.9 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets. Forge FC Hamilton average 15.2 shots (5.0 on target), 6.4 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 49% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Atletico Ottawa have won three, drawn three and lost four. Four of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, Atletico Ottawa won two and Forge FC Hamilton won two. The last time they met, on 12 Sep 2026, it finished Atletico Ottawa 0-3 Forge FC Hamilton: Atletico Ottawa had 8 shots to 22, 53% of the ball, six yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 54%; six of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The read. No side to back. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side.
The bets. No bet on this one: too close to call. Leave: Atletico Ottawa Under 1.5 goals (Atletico Ottawa's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Forge FC Hamilton or Over 1.5 Goals (no result call). Predicted score: Atletico Ottawa 1-1 Forge FC Hamilton (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).