Lusail SC vs Al-Shamal

Match details. Stars League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 17:45 Lagos time. It is played at Lusail Stadium.

What's at stake. Lusail SC are 9th on 5 points after 5 games, 2 points behind Al Shahaniya, 1 point clear of Al-Gharafa. A win would take them above Al Shahaniya. Al-Shamal are 5th on 8 points after 5 games, 1 point behind Al-Duhail SC, level on points with Al Wakrah. A win would take them above Al-Duhail SC.

Form. Lusail SC have won one, drawn two and lost two of their last five, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D W D L. Al-Shamal have won two, drawn two and lost one of their last five, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D W W D.

The numbers. Lusail SC score 1.4 and concede one a game over their last five, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. Lusail SC average 10.8 shots (4.5 on target), 3.8 corners and 1.5 cards a game, with 49% of the ball. Al-Shamal score two and concede two a game over their last five, with no clean sheets. Al-Shamal average 11.0 shots (4.5 on target), 5.0 corners and 4.0 cards a game, with 48% of the ball.

Head to head. In the last five meetings Lusail SC have won one, drawn none and lost four. Three of the five went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. In the last four, Lusail SC won one and Al-Shamal won three. The last time they met, on 20 Feb 2021, it finished Lusail SC 0-1 Al-Shamal.

The case against. Lusail SC's record still gives them 20% to win.

The read. Al-Shamal to win. An open game. Both teams' records favour Al-Shamal; the meetings favour Al-Shamal. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 60%. Three of the last five meetings went over 2.5.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Lusail SC or Over 2.5 Goals (the call backs Al-Shamal); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Lusail SC 1-2 Al-Shamal (8% chance).