SUSOU

15:00Sat 17 Oct

BER

Southend United vs Berkhamsted FC

CLASS D

Pick card Full analysis Share

THE READ

Match details. FA Cup, 4th Round Qualifying. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.

What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. Southend United have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D L W. Berkhamsted FC have won seven, drawn one and lost two of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L W L.

The numbers. Southend United score 2.4 and concede 2.2 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets. Berkhamsted FC score 1.6 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five away, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal.

The case against. Berkhamsted FC's record still gives them 48% to win.

The read. Southend United or the draw. An open game. Berkhamsted FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Berkhamsted FC. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 68%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Southend United Over 0.5 goals (Berkhamsted FC's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Southend United 2-1 Berkhamsted FC (7% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Southend United or Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

SOU 5 of 5 (100%) · BER 4 of 5 (80%)83.5%

Southend United: the bet landed in 5 of 5 at home · Berkhamsted FC: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 85%

Southend United or Over 2.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.14

SOU 5 of 5 (100%) · BER 3 of 5 (60%)73.4%

Southend United: the bet landed in 5 of 5 at home · Berkhamsted FC: the bet landed in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 70%

GOALS

Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.14

SOU 5 of 5 (100%) · BER 4 of 5 (80%)77.3%

Southend United: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home · Berkhamsted FC: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 85%

Over 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.45

SOU 5 of 5 (100%) · BER 2 of 5 (40%)59.8%

Southend United: over 2.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home · Berkhamsted FC: over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5 away · both last 10: 65%

BOTH TEAMS SCORE

Both Teams to Score - YesLEANPAGE ONLY

1.70

SOU 5 of 5 (100%) · BER 1 of 5 (20%)55.4%

Southend United: both scored in 5 of 5 at home · Berkhamsted FC: both scored in 1 of 5 away · both last 10: 70%

Left off the list: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10)); Southend United Over 0.5 goals (Berkhamsted FC's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 2–1 7.4%

Southend United goals →

Berkhamsted FC goals ↓

0-04%

1-05%

2-04%

3-02%

4-00.8%

5-00.2%

0-16%

1-111%

2-17%

3-14%

4-11%

5-10.4%

0-26%

1-29%

2-27%

3-23%

4-21%

5-20.4%

0-34%

1-35%

2-34%

3-32%

4-30.7%

5-30.2%

0-42%

1-42%

2-42%

3-40.9%

4-40.3%

5-40.1%

0-50.6%

1-50.9%

2-50.6%

3-50.3%

4-50.1%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).

FORM · LAST 10

SOUTHEND UNITEDLDWDWWLDWW1.80 PPG

BERKHAMSTED FCWWDWWLWLWW2.20 PPG

THE NUMBERS

SOUTHEND UNITED HOMExBERKHAMSTED FC AWAY

2.40SCORED A GAME1.801.70CONCEDED A GAME0.800%CLEAN SHEETS50%0%FAILED TO SCORE0%

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

2.00POINTS A GAME1.45+0.85GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.00+3.1SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST–2.0LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.413LEAGUE GAMES11

Southend United: the quality side - a better goal difference.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

86%

VERY GOOD · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

63%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

85%

NO · 85/90

SOUTHEND UNITED OR DRAW

57%

NO · 80/85

BERKHAMSTED FC OR DRAW

49%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (13 and 11 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

SOUTHEND UNITEDxBERKHAMSTED FC

6GAMES61.83SCORED A GAME1.172.00CONCEDED A GAME1.503.8GOALS IN THEIR GAMES2.783%OVER 1.5 GOALS83%83%OVER 2.5 GOALS67%83%BOTH SCORE50%3.4CARDS IN THEIR GAMES–11.0CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TRENDS

Southend United have scored in 100% of their games.

Berkhamsted FC have scored in 80% of their games.

Southend United kept a clean sheet in 0% of their games.

Berkhamsted FC kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheets