Gateshead FC vs Stafford Rangers
Match details. FA Cup, 4th Round Qualifying. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Gateshead FC have won none, drawn one and lost nine of their last ten, 0.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L L. Stafford Rangers have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D L W W.
The numbers. Gateshead FC score 0.8 and concede 2.6 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets. Stafford Rangers score 1.5 and concede 2.8 a game in their last six away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Stafford Rangers average 1.0 corners and 3.0 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 27% against the records' 59%.
The read. No firm call: Stafford Rangers are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Stafford Rangers are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Stafford Rangers. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 78%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Stafford Rangers Over 1.5 goals (Stafford Rangers's own games don't back it (3 of 6)). Predicted score: Gateshead FC 1-2 Stafford Rangers (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).