CUCAR

15:00Sat 17 Oct

TAM

Carlisle United vs Tamworth FC

CLASS D

Pick card Full analysis Share

THE READ

Match details. FA Cup, 4th Round Qualifying. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.

What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. Carlisle United have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W L L. Tamworth FC have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W L.

The numbers. Carlisle United score 1.8 and concede two a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Tamworth FC score 1.3 and concede 1.9 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets.

Head to head. In the last two meetings Carlisle United have won one, drawn none and lost one. Two of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. The last time they met, on 14 Mar 2026, it finished Carlisle United 1-2 Tamworth FC.

The case against. Tamworth FC's record still gives them 30% to win.

The read. Carlisle United or the draw. An open game. Carlisle United are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 66%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Carlisle United 2-1 Tamworth FC (9% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Carlisle United or Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

CAR 4 of 5 (80%) · TAM 7 of 8 (88%)79.6%

Carlisle United: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · Tamworth FC: the bet landed in 7 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 84% · Carlisle United: only games against sides at Tamworth FC's level · Tamworth FC: only games against sides at Carlisle United's level

Carlisle United or Over 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.27

CAR 3 of 5 (60%) · TAM 6 of 8 (75%)65.3%

Carlisle United: the bet landed in 3 of 5 at home · Tamworth FC: the bet landed in 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 68% · Carlisle United: only games against sides at Tamworth FC's level · Tamworth FC: only games against sides at Carlisle United's level

GOALS

Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.22

CAR 4 of 5 (80%) · TAM 7 of 8 (88%)73.3%

Carlisle United: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home · Tamworth FC: over 1.5 goals in 7 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 84% · Carlisle United: only games against sides at Tamworth FC's level · Tamworth FC: only games against sides at Carlisle United's level

Over 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.70

CAR 3 of 5 (60%) · TAM 6 of 8 (75%)57.6%

Carlisle United: over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home · Tamworth FC: over 2.5 goals in 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 62% · Carlisle United: only games against sides at Tamworth FC's level · Tamworth FC: only games against sides at Carlisle United's level

CARLISLE UNITED GOALS

Carlisle United Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES

1.13

CAR 4 of 5 (80%) · TAM 6 of 8 (75%)74.1%

Carlisle United scored in 4 of 5 at home · Tamworth FC conceded in 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 78% · Carlisle United: only games against sides at Tamworth FC's level · Tamworth FC: only games against sides at Carlisle United's level

Left off the list: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10)); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 2–1 8.8%

Carlisle United goals →

Tamworth FC goals ↓

0-04%

1-05%

2-06%

3-04%

4-02%

5-00.6%

0-14%

1-110%

2-19%

3-15%

4-13%

5-11.0%

0-24%

1-27%

2-27%

3-24%

4-22%

5-20.7%

0-32%

1-34%

2-34%

3-32%

4-31%

5-30.4%

0-40.8%

1-42%

2-41%

3-40.9%

4-40.4%

5-40.2%

0-50.3%

1-50.5%

2-50.4%

3-50.3%

4-50.1%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).

FORM · LAST 10

CARLISLE UNITEDDWLDDLLWWD1.30 PPG

TAMWORTH FCDLLLWLWWWL1.30 PPG

THE NUMBERS

CARLISLE UNITED HOMExTAMWORTH FC AWAY

1.60SCORED A GAME1.301.50CONCEDED A GAME1.9020%CLEAN SHEETS30%15%FAILED TO SCORE0%

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

1.23POINTS A GAME1.08+0.08GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME-0.69+2.3SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+2.41.4LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.813LEAGUE GAMES13

Carlisle United: the quality side - a better goal difference.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

91%

VERY GOOD · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

70%

OKAY · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

55%

NO · 85/90

CARLISLE UNITED OR DRAW

75%

NO · 80/85

TAMWORTH FC OR DRAW

49%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (13 and 13 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

CARLISLE UNITEDxTAMWORTH FC

7GAMES71.86SCORED A GAME1.432.00CONCEDED A GAME3.003.9GOALS IN THEIR GAMES4.486%OVER 1.5 GOALS86%57%OVER 2.5 GOALS86%71%BOTH SCORE86%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES2.4–CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES11.0

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 2

CARLISLE UNITED 1 · 50%DRAW 0TAMWORTH FC 1 · 50%

2025-11-29Carlisle United 2 – 1 Tamworth FC

2026-03-14Carlisle United 1 – 2 Tamworth FC

TRENDS

Carlisle United failed to score in 15% of their games.

Tamworth FC failed to score in 0% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againsthead to head