Bury FC vs Harrogate Town
Match details. FA Cup, 4th Round Qualifying. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 12:30 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Bury FC have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W D W. Harrogate Town have won seven, drawn none and lost three of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W L.
The numbers. Bury FC score 4.1 and concede 0.9 a game in their last seven at home, with three clean sheets. Bury FC average 18.1 shots (7.6 on target), 6.7 corners and 1.4 cards a game. Harrogate Town score 1.2 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with three clean sheets.
The case against. Bury FC's record still gives them 52% to win.
The read. Harrogate Town or the draw. An open game. Their goals for and against make Bury FC the likelier winners; both teams' records favour Bury FC. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 67%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Bury FC 2-2 Harrogate Town (5% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).