Como 1907 vs Man Utd
Match details. UEFA Champions League, League Stage - 3. Kick-off is Wed 21 Oct, 17:45 Lagos time. It is played at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como. The referee is Sven Jablonski.
What's at stake. Como 1907 are 17th on 3 points after 2 games, 1 point behind PSV Eindhoven, level on points with Manchester United. A win would take them above PSV Eindhoven. Man Utd are 18th on 3 points after 2 games, level on points with Como, level on points with Villarreal. A win would take them above Como.
Team news. Como 1907 are without J. Addai (off the roster), M. Caqueret (off the roster), T. Chalobah (injury), A. Diao (thigh injury), E. Goldaniga (off the roster), W. Kambwala (off the roster). T. Chalobah is their centre-back. Man Utd are without P. Dorgu (hamstring injury), T. Heaton (abdominal strain), A. Heaven (illness), K. Mainoo (injury), L. Martinez (muscle injury), M. Rashford (hip injury).
Form. Como 1907 have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D L W. In this competition Como 1907 have gone L W. Man Utd have won two, drawn four and lost four of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L D D L. In this competition Man Utd have gone L W.
The numbers. Como 1907 score 2.1 and concede 1.3 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Como 1907 average 19.6 shots (6.6 on target), 5.4 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 59% of the ball. Man Utd score 0.8 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Man Utd average 15.8 shots (4.6 on target), 5.6 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 50% of the ball.
The case against. Como 1907 without T. Chalobah (centre-back).
The read. Como 1907 or the draw. A draw is live. A tight game. Como 1907 are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Como 1907. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 46%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.60, 72% on the records (Como 1907: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 10; Man Utd: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Backup: Under 5.5 Goals at 1.10. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Como 1907 1-1 Man Utd (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).