Man City vs AEK Athens

Match details. UEFA Champions League, League Stage - 3. Kick-off is Tue 20 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Etihad Stadium, Manchester. The referee is Willy Delajod.

What's at stake. Man City are 17th on 3 points after 2 games, level on points with Club Brugge KV, level on points with Borussia Dortmund. A win would take them above Club Brugge KV. AEK Athens are 20th on 3 points after 2 games, level on points with Lens, level on points with RB Leipzig. A win would take them above Lens.

Form. Man City have won nine, drawn none and lost one of their last ten, 2.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W W W. In this competition Man City have gone L W. AEK Athens have won seven, drawn two and lost one of their last ten, 2.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W D.

The numbers. Man City score three and concede 1.7 a game in their last six at home, with two clean sheets. Man City average 16.5 shots (5.9 on target), 5.4 corners and 1.5 cards a game, with 62% of the ball. AEK Athens score 1.4 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. AEK Athens average 13.5 shots (5.3 on target), 4.4 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 48% of the ball.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 85% against the records' 48%.

The read. No firm call: Man City are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Man City the likelier winners; Man City are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Man City. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 63%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (Man City are a clear winner, no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (Man City are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: Man City 2-1 AEK Athens (9% chance).