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Sabah Masazir vs Borussia Dortmund

CLASS A
THE READ

Match details. Sabah Masazir host Borussia Dortmund in the UEFA Champions League, League Stage - 3 on Tue 20 Oct, 17:45 Lagos time. The match is played at Bank Respublika Arena, Masazyr (Masazir). Javier Alberola Rojas is the referee.

What's at stake. Sabah Masazir are 22nd on 3 points after 2 games, level on points with RB Leipzig and Feyenoord. A win would take them above RB Leipzig. Borussia Dortmund sit 18th on 3 points after 2 games, level on points with Manchester City and Lens. A win would take them above Manchester City.

Team news. Borussia Dortmund are without E. Can due to a knee injury, K. Karetsas with an ankle injury, G. Konstantelias with a knee injury, and J. Lerma with a muscle injury.

Form. Sabah Masazir have won seven, drawn one and lost two of their last ten, averaging 2.2 points a game. Their last five results are W W D W W. Borussia Dortmund have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, picking up 2.0 points a game, with a last five reading D L D W W. In this competition Borussia Dortmund have gone L W.

The numbers. Sabah Masazir score 2.2 and concede 0.9 a game over their last ten, with six clean sheets and two games without a goal. They average 13.6 shots (6.2 on target), 4.7 corners and 1.2 cards a game, with 48% of the ball. Borussia Dortmund score 1.8 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five away, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. They average 16.5 shots (5.9 on target), 7.8 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 56% of the ball.

The read. No side to back. An open game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 58%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Sabah Masazir or Over 2.5 Goals (no result call); Borussia Dortmund or Over 2.5 Goals (no result call); Borussia Dortmund or Over 1.5 Goals (no result call). Predicted score: Sabah Masazir 2-1 Borussia Dortmund (8% chance).

PICKSONE LIST
GOALS
Over 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.40
SAB 7 of 10 (70%) · BOR 2 of 5 (40%)58.5%
Sabah Masazir: over 2.5 goals in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Borussia Dortmund: over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5 away · both last 10: 65% · each game weighed by who it was against
HALVES
2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY
1.16
SAB 9 of 10 (90%) · BOR 4 of 5 (80%)85.6%
Sabah Masazir: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Borussia Dortmund: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 85% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
CORNERS
Over 8.5 CornersIN CODES
1.45
SAB 6 of 10 (60%) · BOR 4 of 5 (80%)72.7%
Sabah Masazir's games: over 8.5 corners in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Borussia Dortmund's games: over 8.5 corners in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 75% · each game weighed by who it was against
CARDS
Over 1.5 CardsIN CODES
1.12
SAB 7 of 10 (70%) · BOR 4 of 5 (80%)77.4%
Sabah Masazir's games: over 1.5 cards in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Borussia Dortmund's games: over 1.5 cards in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 80% · each game weighed by who it was against
Left off the list: Sabah Masazir or Over 2.5 Goals (no result call); Borussia Dortmund or Over 2.5 Goals (no result call); Borussia Dortmund or Over 1.5 Goals (no result call); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10)); Sabah Masazir or Over 1.5 Goals (no result call); Double Chance: Sabah Masazir or Borussia Dortmund (no result call); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10))
SCORELINES
Predicted score
Predicted score 2–1 8.5%
Sabah Masazir goals →
Borussia Dortmund goals ↓
0-07%
1-08%
2-06%
3-03%
4-01%
5-00.3%
0-18%
1-113%
2-18%
3-14%
4-11%
5-10.4%
0-26%
1-28%
2-26%
3-23%
4-20.9%
5-20.2%
0-33%
1-34%
2-32%
3-31%
4-30.4%
5-30.1%
0-40.9%
1-41%
2-40.8%
3-40.4%
4-40.1%
5-40.0%
0-50.2%
1-50.3%
2-50.2%
3-50.1%
4-50.0%
5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).

FORM · LAST 10
SABAH MASAZIRLWWWLWWDWW2.20 PPG
BORUSSIA DORTMUNDLWWWWWWDLD2.00 PPG
THE NUMBERS
SABAH MASAZIR HOMExBORUSSIA DORTMUND AWAY
2.20SCORED A GAME2.000.90CONCEDED A GAME0.9060%CLEAN SHEETS50%10%FAILED TO SCORE17%4.70CORNERS A GAME7.751.20CARDS A GAME2.00
THE BANK
THE QUALITY READ
2.67POINTS A GAME2.14+2.50GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+1.00+4.7SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+2.52.6LAST 5: POINTS A GAME2.26LEAGUE GAMES7
Borussia Dortmund: the quality side - a top-five league club v a smaller league.
Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.
THE BANK'S READ
OVER 1.5 GOALS
84%
VERY GOOD · 80/83
OVER 2.5 GOALS
82%
VERY GOOD · 65/78
UNDER 4.5 GOALS
60%
NO · 85/90
SABAH MASAZIR OR DRAW
70%
NO · 80/85
BORUSSIA DORTMUND OR DRAW
56%
NO · 80/85
Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (6 and 7 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.
SABAH MASAZIRxBORUSSIA DORTMUND
5GAMES53.00SCORED A GAME1.800.20CONCEDED A GAME0.803.2GOALS IN THEIR GAMES2.680%OVER 1.5 GOALS60%80%OVER 2.5 GOALS60%20%BOTH SCORE40%3.0CARDS IN THEIR GAMES4.87.8CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES10.2
Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.
TEAM NEWS

BORUSSIA DORTMUND

Out: E. Can (Knee Injury), K. Karetsas (Ankle Injury), G. Konstantelias (Knee Injury), J. Lerma (Muscle Injury), E. Can (Knee Injury), K. Karetsas (Ankle Injury)
TRENDS
Sabah Masazir have scored in 80% of their games.
Borussia Dortmund have scored in 80% of their games.
Sabah Masazir kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games.
Borussia Dortmund kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games.
BUILT FROM
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