Match details. Torneo Federal A. Kick-off is Sun 18 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time.
Form. CA 9 de Julio Rafaela have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L W W. Gimnasia y Esgrima de Concepcion del Uruguay have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W L D.
The numbers. CA 9 de Julio Rafaela score 1.1 and concede 1.2 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. CA 9 de Julio Rafaela average 8.7 shots (3.0 on target), 6.1 corners and 2.3 cards a game. Gimnasia y Esgrima de Concepcion del Uruguay score 1.3 and concede 0.4 a game over their last ten, with six clean sheets and five games without a goal. Gimnasia y Esgrima de Concepcion del Uruguay average 8.4 shots (3.6 on target), 5.7 corners and 2.0 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 23% against the records' 45%.
The read. No firm call: Gimnasia y Esgrima de Concepcion del Uruguay are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Gimnasia y Esgrima de Concepcion del Uruguay are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Gimnasia y Esgrima de Concepcion del Uruguay. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 30%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.22, 75% on the records (CA 9 de Julio Rafaela: under 3.5 goals in 8 of 10; Gimnasia y Esgrima de Concepcion del Uruguay: under 3.5 goals in 8 of 10). Backup: Under 1.5 first-half goals at 1.32. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Gimnasia y Esgrima de Concepcion del Uruguay Over 0.5 goals (Gimnasia y Esgrima de Concepcion del Uruguay's own games don't back it (5 of 10)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: CA 9 de Julio Rafaela 1-1 Gimnasia y Esgrima de Concepcion del Uruguay (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).