ASADS

15:00Sat 17 Oct

NAC

AD Sanjoanense vs Nacional da Madeira

CLASS A

THE READ

Match details. Taca de Portugal, Round of 64. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time. It is played at Estádio Conde Dias Garcia, São João da Madeira.

What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. AD Sanjoanense have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L W W. In this competition AD Sanjoanense have gone W W. Nacional da Madeira have won two, drawn one and lost seven of their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L L.

The numbers. AD Sanjoanense score 1.8 and concede 0.4 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. AD Sanjoanense average 12.6 shots (5.0 on target), 5.1 corners and 2.6 cards a game. Nacional da Madeira score 0.8 and concede two a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. Nacional da Madeira average 11.0 shots (3.1 on target), 4.4 corners and 1.4 cards a game, with 49% of the ball.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 16% against the records' 75%.

The read. No firm call: AD Sanjoanense are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Their goals for and against make AD Sanjoanense the likelier winners; AD Sanjoanense are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour AD Sanjoanense. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 43%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: AD Sanjoanense 1-0 Nacional da Madeira (12% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Under 5.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.10

ADS 5 of 5 (100%) · NAC 5 of 5 (100%)100%

AD Sanjoanense: under 5.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home · Nacional da Madeira: under 5.5 goals in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 100% · each game weighed by who it was against

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.27

ADS 5 of 5 (100%) · NAC 4 of 5 (80%)88.7%

AD Sanjoanense: under 4.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home · Nacional da Madeira: under 4.5 goals in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 85% · each game weighed by who it was against

HALVES

Over 0.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.24

ADS 4 of 5 (80%) · NAC 5 of 5 (100%)86.7%

AD Sanjoanense: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · Nacional da Madeira: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 80% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

Left off the list: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–0 12.4%

AD Sanjoanense goals →

Nacional da Madeira goals ↓

0-08%

1-012%

2-012%

3-07%

4-03%

5-01%

0-15%

1-111%

2-110%

3-16%

4-13%

5-10.9%

0-22%

1-24%

2-24%

3-22%

4-21%

5-20.4%

0-30.7%

1-31%

2-31%

3-30.7%

4-30.3%

5-30.1%

0-40.1%

1-40.2%

2-40.2%

3-40.1%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.0%

1-50.0%

2-50.0%

3-50.0%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

AD SANJOANENSEWWLDDWWLWW2.00 PPG

NACIONAL DA MADEIRALWDWLLLLLL0.70 PPG

THE NUMBERS

AD SANJOANENSE HOMExNACIONAL DA MADEIRA AWAY

1.70SCORED A GAME1.100.90CONCEDED A GAME2.0030%CLEAN SHEETS20%20%FAILED TO SCORE38%5.10CORNERS A GAME4.382.60CARDS A GAME1.38

TRENDS

AD Sanjoanense have scored in 90% of their games.

Nacional da Madeira have scored in 60% of their games.

AD Sanjoanense kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

Nacional da Madeira kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetscornerscards