Trabzonspor vs Heart of Midlothian FC
Heart of Midlothian FC scored under 1.5 in 3 of 5 away · Trabzonspor conceded under 1.5 in 5 of 5 at home · both last 10: 55%
Match details. UEFA Conference League, League Stage - 2. Kick-off is Thu 22 Oct, 17:45 Lagos time. It is played at Papara Park, Trabzon. The referee is L. Visser.
What's at stake. Trabzonspor are 3rd on 3 points after 1 game, level on points with FC Copenhagen, level on points with Atalanta. A win would take them above FC Copenhagen. Heart of Midlothian FC are 19th on 1 point after 1 game, level on points with Kairat Almaty, level on points with Egnatia Rrogozhinë. A win would take them above Kairat Almaty.
Form. Trabzonspor have won six, drawn none and lost four of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W L. In this competition Trabzonspor have gone W. Heart of Midlothian FC have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D W D L. In this competition Heart of Midlothian FC have gone D D.
The numbers. Trabzonspor score 2.6 and concede 0.4 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. Trabzonspor average 14.4 shots (6.5 on target), 4.8 corners and 3.1 cards a game, with 49% of the ball. Heart of Midlothian FC score 1.8 and concede 2.2 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Heart of Midlothian FC average 17.7 shots (5.3 on target), 6.7 corners and 1.9 cards a game, with 56% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 75% against the records' 53%.
The read. No firm call: Trabzonspor are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Trabzonspor the likelier winners; Trabzonspor are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Trabzonspor. Their xG points to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 72%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.13, 90% on the records (Trabzonspor: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; Heart of Midlothian FC: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 away). Full cover: Heart of Midlothian FC Under 1.5 Goals at 1.24. It wins on every score where the best bet loses. Leave: Over 3.5 Cards (the signs point different ways); Under 4.5 Goals (Trabzonspor are a clear winner, no Unders); Trabzonspor Over 1.5 goals (Heart of Midlothian FC's own games don't back it (2 of 5)). Predicted score: Trabzonspor 2-1 Heart of Midlothian FC (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).