Match details. Liga Primera Premier. Kick-off is Sun 18 Oct, 02:00 Lagos time.
Form. Irapuato have won eight, drawn one and lost one of their last ten, 2.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W W. Zacatepec FC have won four, drawn five and lost one of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W D W.
The numbers. Irapuato score 1.8 and concede 0.5 a game in their last six at home, with three clean sheets. Irapuato average 11.9 shots (4.9 on target), 5.1 corners and 2.4 cards a game. Zacatepec FC score 1.4 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Zacatepec FC average 6.0 shots (2.7 on target), 4.3 corners and 4.0 cards a game.
The case against. Zacatepec FC's record still gives them 25% to win.
The read. Irapuato to win. Their goals for and against make Irapuato the likelier winners; Irapuato are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Irapuato.
The bets. Best bet: Irapuato or Draw at 1.09, rated 79% (Irapuato unbeaten in 6 of 6; Zacatepec FC failed to win 3 of 6). Predicted score: Irapuato 2-1 Zacatepec FC (10% chance).
The agreed story. Irapuato or the draw, goals in between.
The league run. Irapuato: unbeaten in their last five league games (W W W W W).
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).