ULUDL

16:00Sat 17 Oct

GDB

UD Leiria vs GD Braganca

CLASS D

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THE READ

Match details. Taca de Portugal, Round of 64. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 16:00 Lagos time.

What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. UD Leiria have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D W W. In this competition UD Leiria have gone W. GD Braganca have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W W. In this competition GD Braganca have gone W W.

The numbers. UD Leiria score 1.2 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. UD Leiria average 1.0 corners and 1.6 cards a game. GD Braganca score 1.8 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 8% against the records' 50%.

The read. No firm call: GD Braganca are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. GD Braganca are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour GD Braganca. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 40%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: UD Leiria 1-1 GD Braganca (13% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.22

UDL 5 of 5 (100%) · GDB 4 of 5 (80%)88.3%

UD Leiria: under 4.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home · GD Braganca: under 4.5 goals in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 85%

Under 3.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.54

UDL 4 of 5 (80%) · GDB 3 of 5 (60%)70%

UD Leiria: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home · GD Braganca: under 3.5 goals in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 70%

Left off the list: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 13.2%

UD Leiria goals →

GD Braganca goals ↓

0-09%

1-08%

2-05%

3-02%

4-00.5%

5-00.1%

0-111%

1-113%

2-17%

3-12%

4-10.7%

5-10.1%

0-28%

1-29%

2-25%

3-22%

4-20.5%

5-20.1%

0-34%

1-34%

2-32%

3-30.9%

4-30.2%

5-30.1%

0-41%

1-42%

2-40.9%

3-40.3%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.4%

1-50.5%

2-50.3%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

UD LEIRIALDLLWWWDWL1.40 PPG

GD BRAGANCADWLWDWWWWL2.00 PPG

THE NUMBERS

UD LEIRIA HOMExGD BRAGANCA AWAY

1.40SCORED A GAME1.901.20CONCEDED A GAME0.7030%CLEAN SHEETS50%29%FAILED TO SCORE40%

TRENDS

UD Leiria have scored in 70% of their games.

GD Braganca have scored in 70% of their games.

UD Leiria kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

GD Braganca kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetscornerscards