SFSCF

15:00Sat 17 Oct

ADM

SC Farense vs AD Marco 09

CLASS D

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THE READ

Match details. Taca de Portugal, Round of 64. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.

What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. SC Farense have won six, drawn three and lost one of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W D L. In this competition SC Farense have gone W. AD Marco 09 have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W D W. In this competition AD Marco 09 have gone W W.

The numbers. SC Farense score two and concede 0.6 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. SC Farense average 4.0 corners and 2.2 cards a game. AD Marco 09 score 0.8 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. AD Marco 09 average 5.0 corners and 3.0 cards a game.

Head to head. The last time they met, on 18 Oct 2025, it finished SC Farense 3-0 AD Marco 09.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 75% against the records' 53%.

The read. No firm call: SC Farense are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Their goals for and against make SC Farense the likelier winners; SC Farense are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour SC Farense. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 47%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: AD Marco 09 or Under 2.5 Goals (the call backs SC Farense); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: SC Farense 1-1 AD Marco 09 (13% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.14

SCF 5 of 5 (100%) · ADM 5 of 5 (100%)100%

SC Farense: under 4.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home · AD Marco 09: under 4.5 goals in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 100%

Under 3.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.37

SCF 4 of 5 (80%) · ADM 4 of 5 (80%)81.7%

SC Farense: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home · AD Marco 09: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 85%

Under 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.97

SCF 2 of 5 (40%) · ADM 3 of 5 (60%)53.3%

SC Farense: under 2.5 goals in 2 of 5 at home · AD Marco 09: under 2.5 goals in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 60%

BOTH TEAMS SCORE

Both Teams to Score - NoLEANPAGE ONLY

1.66

SCF 2 of 5 (40%) · ADM 3 of 5 (60%)53.3%

SC Farense: not both scored in 2 of 5 at home · AD Marco 09: not both scored in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 60%

HALVES

Under 2.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.11

SCF 5 of 5 (100%) · ADM 5 of 5 (100%)100%

SC Farense: the bet landed in 5 of 5 at home · AD Marco 09: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 100% · on half-time scores

1st Half - GG/NG: NoPAGE ONLY

1.15

SCF 5 of 5 (100%) · ADM 5 of 5 (100%)98.3%

SC Farense: the bet landed in 5 of 5 at home · AD Marco 09: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 95% · on half-time scores

Under 1.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.48

SCF 4 of 5 (80%) · ADM 4 of 5 (80%)81.7%

SC Farense: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · AD Marco 09: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 85% · on half-time scores

Over 0.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.33

SCF 4 of 5 (80%) · ADM 4 of 5 (80%)73.3%

SC Farense: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · AD Marco 09: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 60% · on half-time scores

Left off the list: AD Marco 09 or Under 2.5 Goals (the call backs SC Farense); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 12.8%

SC Farense goals →

AD Marco 09 goals ↓

0-010%

1-013%

2-010%

3-05%

4-02%

5-00.6%

0-17%

1-113%

2-19%

3-15%

4-12%

5-10.6%

0-24%

1-25%

2-24%

3-22%

4-20.8%

5-20.2%

0-31%

1-32%

2-31%

3-30.6%

4-30.2%

5-30.1%

0-40.2%

1-40.4%

2-40.3%

3-40.1%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.0%

1-50.1%

2-50.0%

3-50.0%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

SC FARENSEWDWWDLDWWW2.10 PPG

AD MARCO 09WDWLWWDWWL2.00 PPG

THE NUMBERS

SC FARENSE HOMExAD MARCO 09 AWAY

1.50SCORED A GAME1.100.60CONCEDED A GAME0.7050%CLEAN SHEETS60%14%FAILED TO SCORE33%4.00CORNERS A GAME5.002.00CARDS A GAME3.00

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

1.83POINTS A GAME1.67+1.00GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.17+0.4SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST–1.6LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.46LEAGUE GAMES6

SC Farense: the quality side - a better goal difference.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

77%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

51%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

100%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

SC FARENSE OR DRAW

90%

VERY GOOD · 80/85

AD MARCO 09 OR DRAW

37%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (6 and 6 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

SC FARENSExAD MARCO 09

5GAMES51.60SCORED A GAME0.800.80CONCEDED A GAME0.802.4GOALS IN THEIR GAMES1.680%OVER 1.5 GOALS60%60%OVER 2.5 GOALS20%60%BOTH SCORE20%5.0CARDS IN THEIR GAMES–10.2CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 1

SC FARENSE 1 · 100%DRAW 0AD MARCO 09 0 · 0%

2025-10-18SC Farense 3 – 0 AD Marco 09

TRENDS

SC Farense have scored in 80% of their games.

AD Marco 09 have scored in 80% of their games.

SC Farense kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games.

AD Marco 09 kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetshead to headcornerscards