FFFLO

15:00Sat 17 Oct

POR

Florgrade FC vs Portimonense SC

CLASS D

THE READ

Match details. Taca de Portugal, Round of 64. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time. It is played at Parque Do Bucaquinho.

What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. Florgrade FC have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W L W. In this competition Florgrade FC have gone W. Portimonense SC have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L L L. In this competition Portimonense SC have gone W.

The numbers. Florgrade FC score 0.9 and concede 1.4 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and three games without a goal. Portimonense SC score one and concede 0.7 a game in their last six away, with two clean sheets. Portimonense SC average 2.0 cards a game.

The case against. A knockout game (Round of 64) with penalties if level, and Portimonense SC are not clearly stronger. Florgrade FC's record still gives them 31% to win.

The read. Portimonense SC or the draw. A tight game. Portimonense SC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Portimonense SC. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 22%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Florgrade FC 0-1 Portimonense SC (14% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Portimonense SC or Under 2.5 GoalsTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY

1.10

FLO 6 of 6 (100%) · POR 9 of 10 (90%)95%

Portimonense SC: the bet landed in 6 of 6 away · Florgrade FC: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 95% · the call is Portimonense SC or the draw: a knockout game (Round of 64) with penalties if level, and Portimonense SC are not clearly stronger (rule 8)

Portimonense SC or draw and under 3.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.57

FLO 4 of 10 (40%) · POR 5 of 6 (83%)59.4%

Florgrade FC: the bet landed in 4 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Portimonense SC: the bet landed in 5 of 6 away · both last 10: 55%

Portimonense SC or draw and under 2.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

2.15

FLO 4 of 10 (40%) · POR 4 of 6 (67%)52.2%

Florgrade FC: the bet landed in 4 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Portimonense SC: the bet landed in 4 of 6 away · both last 10: 50%

GOALS

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.13

FLO 9 of 10 (90%) · POR 6 of 6 (100%)95%

Florgrade FC: under 4.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Portimonense SC: under 4.5 goals in 6 of 6 away · both last 10: 95%

Under 3.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.36

FLO 8 of 10 (80%) · POR 6 of 6 (100%)90%

Florgrade FC: under 3.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Portimonense SC: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 6 away · both last 10: 90%

PORTIMONENSE SC GOALS

Portimonense SC Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES

1.14

FLO 5 of 6 (83%) · POR 7 of 10 (70%)74.4%

Portimonense SC scored in 5 of 6 away · Florgrade FC conceded in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 70%

HALVES

Under 2.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.11

FLO 10 of 10 (100%) · POR 6 of 6 (100%)100%

Florgrade FC: the bet landed in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Portimonense SC: the bet landed in 6 of 6 away · both last 10: 100% · on half-time scores

1st Half - GG/NG: NoPAGE ONLY

1.17

FLO 8 of 10 (80%) · POR 5 of 6 (83%)82.8%

Florgrade FC: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Portimonense SC: the bet landed in 5 of 6 away · both last 10: 85% · on half-time scores

Under 1.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.46

FLO 6 of 10 (60%) · POR 5 of 6 (83%)72.8%

Florgrade FC: the bet landed in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Portimonense SC: the bet landed in 5 of 6 away · both last 10: 75% · on half-time scores

Left off the list: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 0–1 14.4%

Florgrade FC goals →

Portimonense SC goals ↓

0-013%

1-010%

2-05%

3-01%

4-00.3%

5-00.0%

0-114%

1-114%

2-16%

3-12%

4-10.3%

5-10.1%

0-29%

1-28%

2-23%

3-21.0%

4-20.2%

5-20.0%

0-34%

1-33%

2-31%

3-30.4%

4-30.1%

5-30.0%

0-41%

1-41%

2-40.4%

3-40.1%

4-40.0%

5-40.0%

0-50.3%

1-50.2%

2-50.1%

3-50.0%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

FLORGRADE FCLDLWDWLWWL1.40 PPG

PORTIMONENSE SCDWWWDLLLWW1.70 PPG

THE NUMBERS

FLORGRADE FC HOMExPORTIMONENSE SC AWAY

0.90SCORED A GAME0.901.40CONCEDED A GAME0.8030%CLEAN SHEETS40%40%FAILED TO SCORE43%

TRENDS

Florgrade FC failed to score in 40% of their games.

Portimonense SC failed to score in 43% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & against