Louletano DC vs Rio Ave FC
Match details. Taca de Portugal, Round of 64. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 17:00 Lagos time. It is played at Estádio Do Algarve, Almancil.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Louletano DC have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W W W. In this competition Louletano DC have gone W. Rio Ave FC have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D L L.
The numbers. Louletano DC score 1.2 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Louletano DC average 10.2 shots (4.1 on target), 4.6 corners and 2.5 cards a game. Rio Ave FC score 0.6 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. Rio Ave FC average 7.6 shots (3.1 on target), 3.8 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 45% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 19% against the records' 50%.
The read. No firm call: Louletano DC are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Louletano DC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Louletano DC. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 42%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Louletano DC 1-1 Rio Ave FC (14% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).