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PORTUGAL - TACA DE PORTUGAL
AVS Futebol SAD crestAFAVS
16:00Sat 17 Oct
MORMoreirense FC crestMF

AVS Futebol SAD vs Moreirense FC

CLASS A
THE READ

Match details. Taca de Portugal, Round of 64. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 16:00 Lagos time. It is played at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves, Vila das Aves.

What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. AVS Futebol SAD have won four, drawn four and lost two of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D L W. In this competition AVS Futebol SAD have gone W. Moreirense FC have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D W L L.

The numbers. AVS Futebol SAD score 1.3 and concede 0.8 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and three games without a goal. AVS Futebol SAD average 8.6 shots (3.0 on target), 2.9 corners and 3.3 cards a game. Moreirense FC score 0.6 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Moreirense FC average 7.9 shots (2.8 on target), 2.4 corners and 2.9 cards a game, with 36% of the ball.

Head to head. In the last four meetings AVS Futebol SAD have won none, drawn two and lost two. One of the four went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. The last time they met, on 16 May 2026, it finished AVS Futebol SAD 0-0 Moreirense FC: AVS Futebol SAD had 8 shots to 13, 35% of the ball, five yellow cards.

The case against. A knockout game (Round of 64) with penalties if level, and AVS Futebol SAD are not clearly stronger. Moreirense FC's record still gives them 24% to win.

The read. AVS Futebol SAD or the draw. A tight game. Their goals for and against make AVS Futebol SAD the likelier winners; AVS Futebol SAD are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 39%. Three of the last four meetings went under 2.5.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: AVS Futebol SAD 1-0 Moreirense FC (14% chance).

PICKSONE LIST
CARDS
Over 3.5 CardsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
AVS 5 of 6 (83%) · MOR 7 of 8 (88%)85.4%
AVS Futebol SAD's games: over 3.5 cards in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Moreirense FC's games: over 3.5 cards in 7 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 85% · Moreirense FC: only games against sides at AVS Futebol SAD's level
Left off the list: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))
SCORELINES
Predicted score
Predicted score 1–0 14%
AVS Futebol SAD goals →
Moreirense FC goals ↓
0-011%
1-014%
2-011%
3-05%
4-02%
5-00.6%
0-17%
1-113%
2-19%
3-14%
4-12%
5-10.5%
0-23%
1-25%
2-24%
3-22%
4-20.7%
5-20.2%
0-30.9%
1-31%
2-31%
3-30.5%
4-30.2%
5-30.1%
0-40.2%
1-40.3%
2-40.2%
3-40.1%
4-40.0%
5-40.0%
0-50.0%
1-50.0%
2-50.0%
3-50.0%
4-50.0%
5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10
AVS FUTEBOL SADWDLDDWLDWW1.60 PPG
MOREIRENSE FCLDDLWLLWDL0.90 PPG
THE NUMBERS
AVS FUTEBOL SAD HOMExMOREIRENSE FC AWAY
1.30SCORED A GAME0.800.80CONCEDED A GAME1.7040%CLEAN SHEETS20%29%FAILED TO SCORE38%2.89CORNERS A GAME2.383.33CARDS A GAME2.88
THE BANK
THE QUALITY READ
1.33POINTS A GAME1.00+0.17GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME-0.88-8.0SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST-4.81.6LAST 5: POINTS A GAME0.86LEAGUE GAMES8
AVS Futebol SAD: the quality side - a better goal difference, better form (last 5).
Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.
THE BANK'S READ
OVER 1.5 GOALS
71%
NO · 80/83
OVER 2.5 GOALS
48%
NO · 65/78
UNDER 4.5 GOALS
100%
VERY GOOD · 85/90
AVS FUTEBOL SAD OR DRAW
70%
NO · 80/85
MOREIRENSE FC OR DRAW
58%
NO · 80/85
Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (6 and 8 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.
AVS FUTEBOL SADxMOREIRENSE FC
5GAMES51.20SCORED A GAME1.000.80CONCEDED A GAME1.802.0GOALS IN THEIR GAMES2.880%OVER 1.5 GOALS80%40%OVER 2.5 GOALS60%60%BOTH SCORE60%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES4.2–CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES7.6
Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.
HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 4
AVS FUTEBOL SAD 0 · 0%DRAW 2MOREIRENSE FC 2 · 50%
1 of 4BOTH TEAMS SCORED
3 of 4OVER 1.5 GOALS
1 of 4OVER 2.5 GOALS
0 of 4OVER 3.5 GOALS
2025-01-04AVS Futebol SAD 1 – 1 Moreirense FC
2025-05-17AVS Futebol SAD 0 – 3 Moreirense FC
2026-01-03AVS Futebol SAD 0 – 2 Moreirense FC
2026-05-16AVS Futebol SAD 0 – 0 Moreirense FC
TRENDS
AVS Futebol SAD have scored in 70% of their games.
Moreirense FC have scored in 50% of their games.
AVS Futebol SAD kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.
Moreirense FC kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.
BUILT FROM
form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetshead to headcornerscards
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