AD Fazendense vs Estrela Amadora
Match details. Taca de Portugal, Round of 64. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 15:30 Lagos time. It is played at Complexo Desportivo Prof. Jose Sousa Gomes - Campo 2.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. AD Fazendense have won two, drawn one and lost seven of their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W L L. In this competition AD Fazendense have gone W W L L L. Estrela Amadora have won two, drawn six and lost two of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D W D.
The numbers. AD Fazendense score two and concede 1.7 a game in their last six at home, with one clean sheet. AD Fazendense average 12.8 shots (6.5 on target), 4.8 corners and 2.2 cards a game. Estrela Amadora score two and concede two a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. Estrela Amadora average 12.9 shots (4.1 on target), 4.2 corners and 2.4 cards a game, with 51% of the ball.
The read. No side to back. An open game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 73%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Estrela Amadora or Over 2.5 Goals (no result call); Estrela Amadora Over 1.5 goals (the signs point different ways); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: AD Fazendense 2-1 Estrela Amadora (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).