Acdr Lamelas vs Vitoria SC Guimaraes
Match details. It is Taca de Portugal action on Sat 17 Oct, with kick-off at 14:00 Lagos time.
Form. Acdr Lamelas have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, picking up 1.7 points a game. Their last five show W D L L W. Vitoria SC Guimaraes have won one, drawn two and lost seven of their last ten, averaging 0.5 points a game, with a recent run of L D L D L.
The numbers. Acdr Lamelas score 1.8 and concede one a game in their last six at home, with one clean sheet. Vitoria SC Guimaraes score 0.6 and concede two a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. Vitoria SC Guimaraes average 13.0 shots, 3.8 on target, 6.1 corners and 3.1 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree here: the odds board makes it 4% against the records' 70%. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game, while their records put over 2.5 goals at 43%.
The read. No firm call: Acdr Lamelas are the better side, but not at this price. Their goals for and against make Acdr Lamelas the likelier winners. Acdr Lamelas are the stronger side on form and the table, and both teams' records favour Acdr Lamelas.
The bets. No bet on this one: too close to call. Leave: Vitoria SC Guimaraes or Under 2.5 Goals (the call backs Acdr Lamelas); Under 2.5 Goals (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Acdr Lamelas 1-1 Vitoria SC Guimaraes (11% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).