Match details. Liga Primera Premier. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 03:30 Lagos time.
Form. Tigres de Alica FC have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D D L. Reboceros de La Piedad have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D L W W.
The numbers. Tigres de Alica FC score 1.6 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Tigres de Alica FC average 6.4 shots (1.9 on target), 5.7 corners and 1.3 cards a game. Reboceros de La Piedad score 1.6 and concede 2.4 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Reboceros de La Piedad average 12.3 shots (6.4 on target), 5.2 corners and 1.9 cards a game.
The case against. Tigres de Alica FC's record still gives them 30% to win.
The read. Reboceros de La Piedad to win. A tight game. Reboceros de La Piedad are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Reboceros de La Piedad.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Tigres de Alica FC 0-1 Reboceros de La Piedad (8% chance).
The agreed story. Reboceros de La Piedad or the draw, a tight game.
The league run. Tigres de Alica FC: up and down in the league (L W D D L). Reboceros de La Piedad: one defeat in their last five league games (W L W W W).
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).