Nordsjaelland vs PFC CSKA Sofia
Match details. UEFA Conference League action sees Nordsjaelland face PFC CSKA Sofia in League Stage - 2. Kick-off is Thu 22 Oct, 17:45 Lagos time at Right to Dream Park, Farum. R. Jones is the referee.
What's at stake. Nordsjaelland are 17th on 1 point after 1 game, level on points with FC Midtjylland and Kairat Almaty. A win would take them above FC Midtjylland. PFC CSKA Sofia are 28th on 0 points after 1 game, level on points with Lincoln Red Imps FC and Aarhus. A win would take them above Lincoln Red Imps FC.
Form. Nordsjaelland have won four, drawn four and lost two of their last ten, taking 1.6 points a game. Their last five read D D D L W. PFC CSKA Sofia have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, with 2.0 points a game. Their last five are W L W D W, though in this competition they have gone L.
The numbers. Nordsjaelland score 1.8 and concede 1.5 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. They average 11.7 shots (4.1 on target), 4.7 corners and 2.7 cards a game, with 59% of the ball. PFC CSKA Sofia score 2.2 and concede one a game in their last six away, with two clean sheets. They average 18.7 shots (7.0 on target), 12.0 corners and 2.5 cards a game, with 57% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their xG points to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 50%.
The case against. PFC CSKA Sofia's record still gives them 42% to win. Not everything agrees on goals, with their records putting over 2.5 goals at 50%.
The read. Nordsjaelland to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make PFC CSKA Sofia the likelier winners. PFC CSKA Sofia are the stronger side on form and the table. Their xG points to an open game.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.17, 95% on the records (Nordsjaelland: over 1.5 goals in 9 of 10; PFC CSKA Sofia: over 1.5 goals in 6 of 6 away). Backup: Nordsjaelland Over 0.5 Goals at 1.09. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 2.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); Under 4.5 Goals (Nordsjaelland are a clear winner, no Unders); Nordsjaelland Over 1.5 goals (PFC CSKA Sofia's own games don't back it (2 of 6)). Predicted score: Nordsjaelland 2-1 PFC CSKA Sofia (7% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).