US Avranches vs Tarbes Pyrenees
Match details. National 1, Group B - 7. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 17:00 Lagos time. It is played at Stade Rene Fenouillere, Avranches.
What's at stake. US Avranches are 4th on 11 points after 6 games, level on points with Granville, level on points with Dinan Léhon. A win would take them above Granville. Tarbes Pyrenees are 7th on 9 points after 6 games, 2 points behind Saint-Malo, level on points with Lorient II. A win would take them above Saint-Malo.
Form. US Avranches have won three, drawn five and lost two of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D W D. Tarbes Pyrenees have won two, drawn three and lost one of their last six, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L D W.
The numbers. US Avranches score 1.5 and concede 1.2 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and three games without a goal. Tarbes Pyrenees score 0.5 and concede 0.3 a game over their last six, with five clean sheets and three games without a goal.
The read. A draw. A tight game. Little separates them, and both sides draw often. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 28%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: US Avranches or Under 2.5 Goals (the call is a draw); Tarbes Pyrenees or Under 2.5 Goals (the call is a draw); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: US Avranches 0-0 Tarbes Pyrenees (16% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).