PFC Rilski Sportist Samokov vs FC Dunav Ruse
Match details. Bulgarian Cup, Round of 32. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 13:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. PFC Rilski Sportist Samokov have won six, drawn three and lost one of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W W W. In this competition PFC Rilski Sportist Samokov have gone W. FC Dunav Ruse have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D L L D.
The numbers. PFC Rilski Sportist Samokov score 1.4 and concede 0.4 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. PFC Rilski Sportist Samokov average 12.6 shots (4.6 on target), 4.6 corners and 2.0 cards a game. FC Dunav Ruse score 1.6 and concede two a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. FC Dunav Ruse average 7.7 shots (3.0 on target), 3.7 corners and 3.1 cards a game, with 41% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 23% against the records' 67%.
The read. No firm call: PFC Rilski Sportist Samokov are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make PFC Rilski Sportist Samokov the likelier winners; PFC Rilski Sportist Samokov are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour PFC Rilski Sportist Samokov. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 67%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: FC Dunav Ruse Over 0.5 goals (PFC Rilski Sportist Samokov's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: PFC Rilski Sportist Samokov 2-1 FC Dunav Ruse (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).