Match details. Stars League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is Fri 16 Oct, 18:30 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Diyala FC are 11th on 9 points after 9 games, 2 points behind Al-Jolan SC, level on points with Zakho. A win would take them above Al-Jolan SC. AL Naft Maysan are 16th on 8 points after 9 games, level on points with Al Talaba, level on points with Mosul. A win would take them above Al Talaba.
Form. Diyala FC have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D W L L. AL Naft Maysan have won two, drawn five and lost three of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L W D L.
The numbers. Diyala FC score 1.4 and concede 1.6 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Diyala FC average 10.6 shots (3.6 on target), 3.6 corners and 2.7 cards a game. AL Naft Maysan score 1.2 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. AL Naft Maysan average 10.4 shots (3.9 on target), 5.0 corners and 2.4 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last four meetings Diyala FC have won three, drawn one and lost none. One of the four went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. The last time they met, on 9 Apr 2026, it finished Diyala FC 1-0 AL Naft Maysan.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 44%. Three of the last four meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.25, 74% on the records (Diyala FC: under 3.5 goals in 7 of 10; AL Naft Maysan: under 3.5 goals in 3 of 5 away). Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Diyala FC 1-1 AL Naft Maysan (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).