WTWIM

15:00Sat 17 Oct

CHE

Wimborne Town vs Chelmsford City

CLASS D

Pick card Full analysis Share

THE READ

Match details. FA Cup, 4th Round Qualifying. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.

What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. Wimborne Town have won five, drawn four and lost one of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W W. Chelmsford City have won four, drawn six and lost none of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D W D. In this competition Chelmsford City have gone W W.

The numbers. Wimborne Town score 2.4 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five at home, with four clean sheets and two games without a goal. Chelmsford City score two and concede 0.9 a game in their last seven away, with three clean sheets. Chelmsford City average 4.0 corners and 0.0 cards a game.

Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 34%.

The case against. Wimborne Town's record still gives them 28% to win.

The read. Chelmsford City or the draw. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Chelmsford City Over 0.5 goals (Wimborne Town's own games don't back it (1 of 5)). Predicted score: Wimborne Town 1-1 Chelmsford City (13% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.13

WIM 4 of 5 (80%) · CHE 5 of 7 (71%)81.5%

Wimborne Town: under 4.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home · Chelmsford City: under 4.5 goals in 5 of 7 away · both last 10: 85%

Under 3.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.38

WIM 3 of 5 (60%) · CHE 5 of 7 (71%)72.7%

Wimborne Town: under 3.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home · Chelmsford City: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 7 away · both last 10: 75%

Left off the list: Chelmsford City Over 0.5 goals (Wimborne Town's own games don't back it (1 of 5))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 12.8%

Wimborne Town goals →

Chelmsford City goals ↓

0-07%

1-09%

2-07%

3-03%

4-01%

5-00.3%

0-18%

1-113%

2-19%

3-14%

4-12%

5-10.4%

0-25%

1-28%

2-26%

3-23%

4-21%

5-20.3%

0-32%

1-33%

2-32%

3-31%

4-30.4%

5-30.1%

0-40.8%

1-41%

2-40.8%

3-40.4%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.2%

1-50.3%

2-50.2%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).

FORM · LAST 10

WIMBORNE TOWNDDWDDWWWWL1.90 PPG

CHELMSFORD CITYDWDDDDWDWW1.80 PPG

THE NUMBERS

WIMBORNE TOWN HOMExCHELMSFORD CITY AWAY

2.00SCORED A GAME1.600.90CONCEDED A GAME0.7040%CLEAN SHEETS50%20%FAILED TO SCORE20%

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

1.30POINTS A GAME1.20+0.60GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.50–SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST–1.6LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.410LEAGUE GAMES10

No quality side: neither club is ahead on more of these.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

67%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

28%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

87%

OKAY · 85/90

WIMBORNE TOWN OR DRAW

84%

OKAY · 80/85

CHELMSFORD CITY OR DRAW

87%

VERY GOOD · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (10 and 10 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

WIMBORNE TOWNxCHELMSFORD CITY

6GAMES61.83SCORED A GAME2.000.83CONCEDED A GAME1.172.7GOALS IN THEIR GAMES3.250%OVER 1.5 GOALS100%33%OVER 2.5 GOALS33%33%BOTH SCORE83%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES––CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TRENDS

Wimborne Town have scored in 80% of their games.

Chelmsford City have scored in 90% of their games.

Wimborne Town kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.

Chelmsford City kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheets