Sutton United vs Truro City
Match details. FA Cup, 4th Round Qualifying. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Sutton United have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D L D. Truro City have won six, drawn three and lost one of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D W W.
The numbers. Sutton United score 1.3 and concede two a game in their last six at home, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. Sutton United average 8.0 shots (4.0 on target), 4.5 corners and 1.8 cards a game. Truro City score 2.1 and concede 0.8 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets. Truro City average 16.0 shots (6.0 on target), 8.7 corners and 1.3 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last three meetings Sutton United have won two, drawn none and lost one. Two of the three went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. The last time they met, on 21 Mar 2026, it finished Sutton United 0-3 Truro City.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 31% against the records' 52%.
The read. No firm call: Truro City are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Truro City the likelier winners; Truro City are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Truro City. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 55%. Two of the last three meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Sutton United Under 1.5 goals (Sutton United's own games don't back it (3 of 6)); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Sutton United 1-2 Truro City (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).