CR Flamengo RJ vs Estudiantes de La Plata
Match details. CONMEBOL Libertadores, Semi-finals. Kick-off is Fri 23 Oct, 01:30 Lagos time. It is played at Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro. The referee is Gustavo Tejera.
What's at stake. CR Flamengo RJ are 1st on 16 points after 6 games, 7 points clear of Estudiantes L.P.. Estudiantes de La Plata are 2nd on 9 points after 6 games, 7 points behind Flamengo, 2 points clear of Independiente Medellin. Estudiantes de La Plata have nothing left to play for. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. CR Flamengo RJ have won seven, drawn three and lost none of their last ten, 2.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W D W. Estudiantes de La Plata have won four, drawn five and lost one of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W D W D. In this competition Estudiantes de La Plata have gone D W D W D W.
The numbers. CR Flamengo RJ score 1.6 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. CR Flamengo RJ average 14.6 shots (5.8 on target), 7.5 corners and 3.0 cards a game, with 54% of the ball. Estudiantes de La Plata score 1.1 and concede 0.6 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and two games without a goal. Estudiantes de La Plata average 13.4 shots (4.6 on target), 5.6 corners and 2.8 cards a game, with 49% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last four meetings CR Flamengo RJ have won two, drawn two and lost none. One of the four went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. The last time they met, on 16 Oct 2026, it finished CR Flamengo RJ 0-0 Estudiantes de La Plata: CR Flamengo RJ had 5 shots to 21, 55% of the ball, five yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their xG points to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 29%; three of the last four meetings went under 2.5.
The read. No side to back. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side.
The bets. No bet on this one: too close to call. Leave: CR Flamengo RJ or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); Under 2.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); Estudiantes de La Plata Under 1.5 goals (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: CR Flamengo RJ 1-1 Estudiantes de La Plata (12% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).