INTERNATIONAL CLUBS - UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE

UGUNI

17:45Thu 22 Oct

HAP

Union Gilloise vs Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC

CLASS A

Pick card Full analysis Share

THE BETLIVELY · 10-ODDS · 100-ODDS ·…

TOTAL GOALS

Class A

UGv

Over 1.5 Goals

Union Gilloise v Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC

International Clubs -… · 17:45

1.14odds

88%book

-14edge

2/2angles

THE READ

Match details. Union Gilloise play Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC in UEFA Europa League, League Stage - 3. Kick-off is Thu 22 Oct, 17:45 Lagos time at Merkur Spielarena, Dusseldorf, a neutral ground. Mikola Balakin is the referee.

What's at stake. Union Gilloise are 12th on 4 points after 2 games, level on points with Sparta Praha and Rennes. A win would take them above Sparta Praha. Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC are 25th on 1 point after 2 games, level on points with Levski Sofia and Sturm Graz. A win would take them above Levski Sofia.

Team news. Union Gilloise are without A. Ait El Hadj, I. Hurtevent, O. Kricfalusi, K. Mac Allister, I. Pavlic and R. Schoofs. Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC are without D. Biton, Lucas Ventura, I. Nachmias, Y. Stoyanov and Joao Victor.

Form. Union Gilloise have won seven, drawn three and lost none of their last ten, taking 2.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first, are W D D W W, and in this competition they have gone D W. Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five are W L W W D, and in this competition they have gone L D.

The numbers. Union Gilloise score 2.4 and concede 0.4 a game over their last ten, with seven clean sheets. They average 19.1 shots (8.0 on target), 4.9 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 50% of the ball. Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC score 1.5 and concede 1.1 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets. They average 13.0 shots (4.1 on target), 4.8 corners and 2.8 cards a game, with 60% of the ball.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree for me. The odds board makes it 73% against the records' 46%.

The read. No firm call: Union Gilloise are the better side, but not at this price. A draw is live. An open game. Their goals for and against make Union Gilloise the likelier winners, they are the stronger side on form and the table, both teams' records favour Union Gilloise, their xG points to an open game, and their records put over 2.5 goals at 60%.

The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.14, 84% on the records (Union Gilloise: over 1.5 goals in 9 of 10; Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10). Backup: Over 2.5 Cards at 1.17. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC Under 1.5 goals (Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC's own games don't back it (4 of 10)); Under 4.5 Goals (Union Gilloise are a clear winner, no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (Union Gilloise are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: Union Gilloise 2-1 Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC (9% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Over 1.5 GoalsMAININ CODES

1.14

UNI 9 of 10 (90%) · HAP 8 of 10 (80%)73.5%

Union Gilloise: over 1.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 84% · each game weighed by who it was against

CARDS

Over 2.5 CardsBACKUPIN CODES

1.17

UNI 6 of 7 (86%) · HAP 7 of 8 (88%)85.7%

Union Gilloise's games: over 2.5 cards in 6 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC's games: over 2.5 cards in 7 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 86% · each game weighed by who it was against

Left off the list: Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC Under 1.5 goals (Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC's own games don't back it (4 of 10)); Under 4.5 Goals (Union Gilloise are a clear winner - no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (Union Gilloise are a clear winner - no Unders)

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 2–1 8.6%

Union Gilloise goals →

Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC goals ↓

0-02%

1-04%

2-06%

3-06%

4-04%

5-02%

0-12%

1-17%

2-19%

3-18%

4-15%

5-13%

0-22%

1-24%

2-26%

3-25%

4-24%

5-22%

0-30.7%

1-32%

2-33%

3-32%

4-32%

5-30.9%

0-40.2%

1-40.6%

2-40.9%

3-40.8%

4-40.5%

5-40.3%

0-50.1%

1-50.2%

2-50.2%

3-50.2%

4-50.1%

5-50.1%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).

FORM · LAST 10

UNION GILLOISEDWWWWWWDDW2.40 PPG

HAPOEL BE`ER SHEVA FCWWDLWDWWLW2.00 PPG

THE NUMBERS

UNION GILLOISE HOMExHAPOEL BE`ER SHEVA FC AWAY

2.40SCORED A GAME1.500.40CONCEDED A GAME1.1070%CLEAN SHEETS40%12%FAILED TO SCORE0%4.86CORNERS A GAME4.752.00CARDS A GAME2.752.26xG1.791.03xG AGAINST1.78

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

2.43POINTS A GAME2.17+2.00GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.83+5.0SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+4.02.6LAST 5: POINTS A GAME2.67LEAGUE GAMES6

Union Gilloise: the quality side - a better goal difference.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

78%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

43%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

91%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

UNION GILLOISE OR DRAW

74%

NO · 80/85

HAPOEL BE`ER SHEVA FC OR DRAW

57%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (7 and 6 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

UNION GILLOISExHAPOEL BE`ER SHEVA FC

5GAMES52.80SCORED A GAME1.800.60CONCEDED A GAME0.603.4GOALS IN THEIR GAMES2.4100%OVER 1.5 GOALS80%60%OVER 2.5 GOALS40%40%BOTH SCORE40%4.0CARDS IN THEIR GAMES–9.4CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TEAM NEWS

UNION GILLOISE

Out: A. Ait El Hadj (Off the roster), I. Hurtevent (Knock), O. Kricfalusi (Knock), K. Mac Allister (Knee Injury), I. Pavlic (Off the roster), R. Schoofs (Knock)

HAPOEL BE`ER SHEVA FC

Out: D. Biton (Heart Problems), Lucas Ventura (Muscle Injury), I. Nachmias (Injury), Y. Stoyanov (Off the roster), Joao Victor (Inactive), D. Biton (Heart Problems)

TRENDS

Union Gilloise have scored in 90% of their games.

Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC have scored in 90% of their games.

Union Gilloise kept a clean sheet in 70% of their games.

Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetsleague tableteam newscornerscards