Sturm Graz vs Marseille
Match details. Sturm Graz host Marseille at Stadion Graz-Liebenau in matchday 3 of the UEFA Europa League League Stage. Kick-off is Thu 22 Oct at 17:45 Lagos time. The referee is Nenad Minakovic.
What's at stake. Sturm Graz are 26th on 1 point after 2 games, level on points with Hapoel Beer Sheva and NEC Nijmegen. A win takes them above Hapoel Beer Sheva. Marseille sit 32nd on 0 points after 2 games, level with Plzen and Celtic. A win would take them above Plzen.
Team news. Sturm Graz are without N. Geyrhofer, L. Grgic with a knee injury, S. Jatta with a shoulder injury, D. Khudyakov, O. Kiteishvili with a calf injury, and G. Mamageishvili. Marseille are missing D. Cornelius with a hip injury, A. Koum Mbondo, P. Hojbjerg with a muscle injury, and F. Moumbagna.
Form. Sturm Graz have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten. Their last five read W L W L D, and in this competition they have gone L D. Marseille have won four and lost six of their last ten. Their last five show W L W L L, and in this competition they have gone L L.
The numbers. Sturm Graz score two and concede 0.6 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. They average 14.3 shots (5.0 on target), 5.6 corners and 3.1 cards a game, with 43% of the ball. Marseille score 1.6 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Marseille average 12.9 shots (4.2 on target), 5.0 corners and 1.9 cards a game, with 55% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways here. Their goals for and against make Marseille the likelier winners, but Sturm Graz are the stronger side on form and the table, with both teams' records favouring Sturm Graz. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game, putting over 2.5 goals at 47%.
The case against. Sturm Graz's record still gives them 59% to win. Not everything agrees on goals, as their goals for and against point to an open game.
The read. Marseille or the draw. A draw is live. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Marseille the likelier winners, but Sturm Graz are the stronger side on form and the table, and both teams' records favour Sturm Graz. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 47%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.51, 72% on the records (Sturm Graz: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; Marseille: under 3.5 goals in 3 of 5 away). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.20. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Sturm Graz 1-1 Marseille (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).