Juventus vs Rennes
Match details. Juventus host Rennes in the UEFA Europa League, League Stage - 3. Kick-off is Thu 22 Oct, 17:45 Lagos time at Allianz Stadium, Turin.
What's at stake. Juventus are 1st on 6 points after two games, level on points with Bayer Leverkusen. Rennes are 13th on 4 points after two games, level on points with Union St. Gilloise and Dinamo Zagreb. A win would take Rennes above Union St. Gilloise.
Form. Juventus have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, earning 1.8 points a game, with their last five reading L W D W W and going W W in this competition. Rennes have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, getting 1.7 points a game. Their last five read L W W L D, and they have gone W D in this competition.
The numbers. Juventus score two and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. They average 16.5 shots (6.1 on target), 6.5 corners and 1.2 cards a game, with 56% of the ball. Rennes score 1.2 and concede 2.4 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Rennes average 19.1 shots (6.9 on target), 7.2 corners and 2.2 cards a game, with 57% of the ball.
The case against. Rennes's record still gives them 24% to win.
The read. Juventus to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Juventus the likelier winners, and they are the stronger side on form and the table, with both teams' records favouring Juventus. Their goals for and against point to an open game, putting over 2.5 goals at 62%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Juventus 2-1 Rennes (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).