FC Ararat-Armenia vs Alkmaar
FC Ararat-Armenia scored under 1.5 in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Alkmaar conceded under 1.5 in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 70%
Match details. UEFA Europa League, League Stage - 3. Kick-off is Thu 22 Oct, 17:45 Lagos time. It is played at Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium, Yerevan, a neutral ground. The referee is Patrik Kolaric.
What's at stake. FC Ararat-Armenia are 34th on 0 points after 2 games, level on points with Celtic, level on points with Celje. A win would take them above Celtic. Alkmaar are 20th on 3 points after 2 games, level on points with Torreense, level on points with Red Bull Salzburg. A win would take them above Torreense.
Team news. FC Ararat-Armenia are without P. Ayongo (off the roster), Z. Banjaqui (injury), P. Ayongo (off the roster), Z. Banjaqui (injury). Alkmaar are without J. Hornkamp (injury), S. Resink (knee injury), K. Smit (injury), H. Verhulst (off the roster), J. Clasie (knock), J. Hornkamp (injury).
Form. FC Ararat-Armenia have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D W L. Alkmaar have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L W L. In this competition Alkmaar have gone W L.
The numbers. FC Ararat-Armenia score 1.4 and concede 1.2 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets. FC Ararat-Armenia average 11.3 shots (3.9 on target), 4.8 corners and 2.5 cards a game, with 46% of the ball. Alkmaar score two and concede 1.2 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Alkmaar average 15.0 shots (5.5 on target), 6.1 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 59% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 71% against the records' 45%.
The read. No firm call: Alkmaar are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Alkmaar are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Alkmaar. Their goals for and against point to an open game.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.16, 75% on the records (FC Ararat-Armenia: over 1.5 goals in 7 of 10; Alkmaar: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10). Full cover: FC Ararat-Armenia Under 1.5 Goals at 1.28. It wins on every score where the best bet loses. Leave: Over 2.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); Under 4.5 Goals (Alkmaar are a clear winner, no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (Alkmaar are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: FC Ararat-Armenia 1-2 Alkmaar (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).