Match details. UEFA Europa League, League Stage - 3. Kick-off is Thu 22 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Stadion Z’dežele, Celje. The referee is John Brooks.
What's at stake. NK Celje are 35th on 0 points after 2 games, level on points with Ararat-Armenia, level on points with Lech Poznan. A win would take them above Ararat-Armenia. Salzburg are 21st on 3 points after 2 games, level on points with AZ Alkmaar, 2 points clear of Real Sociedad. A win would take them above AZ Alkmaar.
Team news. NK Celje are without J. Pisek (knee injury), J. Pisek (knee injury). Salzburg are without E. Aguilar (muscle injury), A. Chase (off the roster), F. Matijasevic (off the roster), J. Moser (off the roster), J. Omoregie (achilles tendon injury), N. Veratschnig (knee injury).
Form. NK Celje have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L W D L. In this competition NK Celje have gone L L. Salzburg have won seven, drawn two and lost one of their last ten, 2.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D W W.
The numbers. NK Celje score 0.6 and concede 1.3 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and five games without a goal. NK Celje average 2.5 corners and 2.0 cards a game. Salzburg score 2.3 and concede 0.7 a game over their last ten, with six clean sheets and two games without a goal. Salzburg average 13.1 shots (5.7 on target), 4.8 corners and 1.2 cards a game, with 61% of the ball.
The read. Salzburg to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Salzburg the likelier winners; Salzburg are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Salzburg. Their goals for and against point to a tight game.
The bets. Best bet: Draw or Salzburg at 1.15, 85% on the records (Salzburg unbeaten in 9 of 10; NK Celje failed to win 8 of 10). Backup: Salzburg or Under 2.5 Goals at 1.15. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 3.5 Goals (Salzburg are a clear winner, no Unders); Salzburg or draw and under 3.5 goals (Salzburg are a clear winner, no Unders); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: NK Celje 0-1 Salzburg (14% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).