Lillestroem SK vs Real Sociedad
Match details. UEFA Europa League, League Stage - 3. Kick-off is Thu 22 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Åråsen Stadion, Lillestrom. The referee is Mohammad Al-Emara.
What's at stake. Lillestroem SK are 23rd on 1 point after 2 games, level on points with Real Sociedad, level on points with Levski Sofia. A win would take them above Real Sociedad. Real Sociedad are 22nd on 1 point after 2 games, 2 points behind Red Bull Salzburg, level on points with Lillestrom. A win would take them above Red Bull Salzburg.
Team news. Lillestroem SK are without E. B. Garnas (knee injury), C. Jebara (injury), L. Alperud (inactive), L. Ranger (inactive), E. B. Garnas (knee injury), C. Jebara (injury). L. Ranger is their centre-back. Real Sociedad are without J. Aramburu (leg injury), L. Beitia (ankle injury), Y. Herrera (calf injury), A. Odriozola (knee injury), J. Aramburu (leg injury), L. Beitia (ankle injury).
Form. Lillestroem SK have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D D W L. Real Sociedad have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W W L. In this competition Real Sociedad have gone D L.
The numbers. Lillestroem SK score 1.9 and concede 1.4 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets. Lillestroem SK average 10.6 shots (4.6 on target), 6.7 corners and 1.4 cards a game, with 54% of the ball. Real Sociedad score 2.6 and concede 2.2 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. Real Sociedad average 14.1 shots (4.9 on target), 7.0 corners and 2.6 cards a game, with 50% of the ball.
The case against. Lillestroem SK's record still gives them 37% to win.
The read. Real Sociedad or the draw. An open game. Lillestroem SK are the stronger side on form and the table. Their xG points to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 75%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.14, 98% on the records (Lillestroem SK: over 1.5 goals in 10 of 10; Real Sociedad: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 away). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.13. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Lillestroem SK 1-2 Real Sociedad (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).