Match details. UEFA Europa League, League Stage - 3. Kick-off is Thu 22 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Prezero Arena, Sinsheim. The referee is Halil Umut Meler.
What's at stake. Hoffenheim are 30th on 0 points after 2 games, level on points with Anderlecht, level on points with Plzen. A win would take them above Anderlecht. Lyon are 8th on 6 points after 2 games, level on points with Ferencvarosi TC, level on points with Sunderland. A win would take them above Ferencvarosi TC.
Team news. Hoffenheim are without N. De Cat (knee injury), L. Engelns (off the roster), A. Hajdari (foot injury), P. Wimmer (thigh injury), N. De Cat (knee injury), L. Engelns (off the roster). Lyon are without A. Hamdani (inactive), L. Openda (leg injury), M. Ouedraogo (knee injury), P. Sulc (knee injury), N. Tagliafico (muscle injury), A. Hamdani (inactive).
Form. Hoffenheim have won three, drawn none and lost seven of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L L L. In this competition Hoffenheim have gone L L. Lyon have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L W W. In this competition Lyon have gone W W.
The numbers. Hoffenheim score 1.7 and concede 2.3 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Hoffenheim average 17.6 shots (5.0 on target), 6.9 corners and 2.9 cards a game, with 58% of the ball. Lyon score 1.9 and concede one a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets. Lyon average 12.6 shots (5.6 on target), 4.2 corners and 1.6 cards a game, with 50% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last three meetings Hoffenheim have won none, drawn three and lost none. Three of the three went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. The last time they met, on 7 Nov 2024, it finished Hoffenheim 2-2 Lyon: Hoffenheim had 18 shots to 11, 44% of the ball, three yellow cards.
The case against. Lyon's record still gives them 56% to win.
The read. Hoffenheim or the draw. A draw is live. An open game. Lyon are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Lyon. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 83%. Three of the last three meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.15, 77% on the records (Hoffenheim: over 1.5 goals in 10 of 10; Lyon: over 1.5 goals in 9 of 10). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.16. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 1.5 (the signs point different ways); Over/Under & GG/NG: Over 2.5 & Yes (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Hoffenheim 2-1 Lyon (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).