Bournemouth vs AC Milan
Match details. Bournemouth take on AC Milan in the UEFA Europa League, League Stage - 3. Kick-off is Thu 22 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time at Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth. Vassilis Fotias is the referee for this match.
What's at stake. Bournemouth sit 5th on 6 points after 2 games, level on points with Beşiktaş and Omonia Nicosia. A win takes them above Beşiktaş. AC Milan are 16th on 3 points after 2 games, level on points with Crystal Palace and Jagiellonia. A win would move them above Crystal Palace.
Team news. Bournemouth are without M. Aarons, F. Forster, D. Jebbison and V. Milosavljevic who are off the roster, while J. Araujo has a thigh injury and E. J. Kroupi has a foot injury. AC Milan visit without W. Bondo off the roster and F. Terracciano following a red card. S. Chukwueze has a hip injury, M. Gabbia has a thigh injury, G. Ramos has a calf injury and A. Saelemaekers has an ankle injury.
Form. Bournemouth have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, averaging 1.5 points a game. Their last five read W W L L W, and they have gone W W in this competition. AC Milan have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, taking 1.8 points a game. They went W W D W L in their last five, with a W L record in this competition.
The numbers. At home, Bournemouth score two and concede 0.7 a game across their last six, keeping three clean sheets. They average 19.2 shots, 5.6 on target, 5.0 corners and 3.0 cards with 54% of the ball. AC Milan score two and concede one a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. They average 12.4 shots, 5.4 on target, 3.6 corners and 2.0 cards with 58% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways here. Their goals for and against make Bournemouth the likelier winners, but AC Milan are the stronger side on form and the table.
The case against. AC Milan's record still gives them 33% to win.
The read. Bournemouth or the draw. A draw is live. An open game. Their goals for and against make Bournemouth the likelier winners; AC Milan are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to an open game, and their records put over 2.5 goals at 59%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: AC Milan Over 0.5 goals (Bournemouth's own games don't back it (3 of 6)); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Bournemouth 2-1 AC Milan (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).