Nejmeh SC vs FC Istiklol
Match details. AFC Challenge League. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.
Form. Nejmeh SC have won seven, drawn two and lost one of their last ten, 2.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W W W. FC Istiklol have won three, drawn none and lost seven of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L W W.
The numbers. Nejmeh SC score 2.3 and concede 1.1 a game in their last seven at home, with two clean sheets. Nejmeh SC average 9.7 shots (3.8 on target), 4.5 corners and 0.5 cards a game. FC Istiklol score 0.8 and concede 2.4 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. FC Istiklol average 9.5 shots (3.0 on target), 4.0 corners and 1.8 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 29% against the records' 74%.
The read. No firm call: Nejmeh SC are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Nejmeh SC the likelier winners; Nejmeh SC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Nejmeh SC. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 75%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Nejmeh SC 2-1 FC Istiklol (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).