Atalanta vs Frosinone
Match details. Serie A, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time. It is played at New Balance Arena, Bergamo. The referee is Livio Marinelli.
What's at stake. Atalanta are 11th on 9 points after 7 games, 2 points behind Juventus, level on points with Lecce. A win would take them above Juventus. Frosinone are 6th on 13 points after 7 games, 2 points behind AC Milan, level on points with Torino. A win would take them above AC Milan.
Team news. Atalanta are without I. Hien (muscle injury), F. Kessie (calf injury), S. Kolasinac (thigh injury), O. Kossounou (thigh injury), G. Raspadori (thigh injury), G. Scalvini (thigh injury). Frosinone are without F. Grillitsch (thigh injury), F. Grillitsch (thigh injury).
Form. Atalanta have won five, drawn none and lost five of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W W L. Frosinone have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W D W.
The numbers. Atalanta score two and concede one a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Atalanta average 13.1 shots (4.2 on target), 4.5 corners and 1.2 cards a game, with 46% of the ball. Frosinone score 2.3 and concede 1.1 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. Frosinone average 16.3 shots (5.9 on target), 5.5 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 43% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last six meetings Atalanta have won four, drawn one and lost one. Four of the six went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. In the last four, Atalanta won three and Frosinone won one. The last time they met, on 15 Jan 2024, it finished Atalanta 5-0 Frosinone: Atalanta had 21 shots to 8, 48% of the ball, one yellow card.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Atalanta the likelier winners, but Frosinone are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Frosinone.
The case against. Frosinone's record still gives them 47% to win.
The read. Atalanta or the draw. An open game. Their goals for and against make Atalanta the likelier winners; Frosinone are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Frosinone. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 65%. Four of the last six meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.12, 77% on the records (Atalanta: over 1.5 goals in 6 of 7; Frosinone: over 1.5 goals in 6 of 7). Backup: Atalanta Over 0.5 Goals at 1.10. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Atalanta 2-1 Frosinone (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).