INTERNATIONAL CLUBS - UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE

OCOFI

17:45Thu 22 Oct

BAY

OFI Crete vs Bayer Leverkusen

CLASS A

Pick card Full analysis Share

THE READ

Match details. OFI Crete face Bayer Leverkusen in the UEFA Europa League, League Stage - 3. Kick-off is Thu 22 Oct, 17:45 Lagos time. It is played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Heraklion.

What's at stake. OFI Crete are 18th on 3 points after 2 games, level on points with Jagiellonia and Torreense. A win would take them above Jagiellonia. Bayer Leverkusen are 2nd on 6 points after 2 games, level on points with Juventus and Benfica. A win would take them above Juventus.

Form. OFI Crete have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L D W. Bayer Leverkusen have won seven, drawn two and lost one of their last ten, 2.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W W.

The numbers. OFI Crete score 1.5 and concede 1.3 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets and two games without a goal. They average 7.2 shots (3.1 on target), 3.2 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 39% of the ball. Bayer Leverkusen score 3.2 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. They average 19.6 shots (6.9 on target), 5.5 corners and 1.2 cards a game, with 58% of the ball.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree. The odds board makes it 81% against the records' 52%.

The case against. Not everything agrees on goals. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 75%.

The read. No firm call: Bayer Leverkusen are the better side, but not at this price. A draw is live. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Bayer Leverkusen the likelier winners. Bayer Leverkusen are the stronger side on form and the table, and both teams' records favour Bayer Leverkusen.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Bayer Leverkusen or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: OFI Crete 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen (9% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

HALVES

2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY

1.14

OFI 8 of 10 (80%) · BAY 5 of 5 (100%)90%

OFI Crete: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Bayer Leverkusen: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 90% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

Over 0.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.24

OFI 7 of 10 (70%) · BAY 5 of 5 (100%)83.4%

OFI Crete: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Bayer Leverkusen: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 80% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

2nd Half - Bayer Leverkusen Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY

1.23

OFI 5 of 5 (100%) · BAY 5 of 10 (50%)75%

Bayer Leverkusen: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · OFI Crete: the bet landed in 5 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

Left off the list: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Bayer Leverkusen or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Bayer Leverkusen Over 1.5 goals (OFI Crete's own games don't back it (5 of 10)); Bayer Leverkusen Over 0.5 Goals (OFI Crete's own games don't back it (5 of 10)); Under 4.5 Goals (Bayer Leverkusen are a clear winner - no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (Bayer Leverkusen are a clear winner - no Unders); Bayer Leverkusen or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 9.4%

OFI Crete goals →

Bayer Leverkusen goals ↓

0-03%

1-04%

2-03%

3-02%

4-00.6%

5-00.2%

0-15%

1-19%

2-17%

3-13%

4-11%

5-10.4%

0-26%

1-29%

2-27%

3-23%

4-21%

5-20.4%

0-34%

1-36%

2-35%

3-32%

4-30.9%

5-30.3%

0-42%

1-43%

2-42%

3-41%

4-40.4%

5-40.1%

0-50.8%

1-51%

2-50.9%

3-50.5%

4-50.2%

5-50.1%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

OFI CRETELLLDWWWWDL1.40 PPG

BAYER LEVERKUSENWWWWWDWLWD2.30 PPG

THE NUMBERS

OFI CRETE HOMExBAYER LEVERKUSEN AWAY

1.50SCORED A GAME2.701.30CONCEDED A GAME1.0050%CLEAN SHEETS50%0%FAILED TO SCORE0%3.25CORNERS A GAME5.502.00CARDS A GAME1.25

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

1.17POINTS A GAME2.17-0.33GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+1.17-5.8SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+6.21.4LAST 5: POINTS A GAME2.66LEAGUE GAMES6

Bayer Leverkusen: the quality side - a top-five league club v a smaller league, more shots than it allows, better form (last 5).

BAYER LEVERKUSEN 0:2 HANDICAP

–

373 OF 433

NO PRICE YET

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

93%

VERY GOOD · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

78%

VERY GOOD · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

78%

NO · 85/90

OFI CRETE OR DRAW

79%

NO · 80/85

BAYER LEVERKUSEN OR DRAW

58%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (6 and 6 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

OFI CRETExBAYER LEVERKUSEN

5GAMES51.60SCORED A GAME2.801.80CONCEDED A GAME1.203.4GOALS IN THEIR GAMES4.080%OVER 1.5 GOALS100%60%OVER 2.5 GOALS80%40%BOTH SCORE60%4.2CARDS IN THEIR GAMES3.29.4CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES11.4

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TRENDS

OFI Crete have scored in 80% of their games.

Bayer Leverkusen have scored in 100% of their games.

OFI Crete kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games.

Bayer Leverkusen kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetsleague tablecornerscards