AD Berazategui vs Club Lujan
Match details. Primera C, Final. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 19:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. AD Berazategui are 1st on 51 points after 32 games, 1 point clear of Sacachispas. Club Lujan are 1st on 64 points after 32 games, 3 points clear of Canuelas. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. AD Berazategui have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W D W. In this competition AD Berazategui have gone W L W D W W. Club Lujan have won seven, drawn one and lost two of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W W. In this competition Club Lujan have gone W W W W W L.
The numbers. AD Berazategui score two and concede 0.5 a game in their last six at home, with four clean sheets. AD Berazategui average 5.0 corners and 2.9 cards a game. Club Lujan score 1.2 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five away, with three clean sheets. Club Lujan average 4.6 corners and 2.1 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings AD Berazategui have won six, drawn one and lost two. Four of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, AD Berazategui won three and one was drawn. The last time they met, on 28 Jul 2024, it finished AD Berazategui 1-0 Club Lujan.
Where it pulls both ways. Club Lujan are the form side, but the meetings favour AD Berazategui: in the last nine meetings, AD Berazategui won six, Club Lujan won two and one was drawn.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Form and the meetings point different ways, so I back neither side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 38%. Five of the last nine meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.13, 74% on the records (AD Berazategui: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 6 at home; Club Lujan: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Backup: Under 1.5 first-half goals at 1.22. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Club Lujan or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: AD Berazategui 1-1 Club Lujan (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).