MFMAR

11:00Sun 18 Oct

CDE

Marbella FC vs CD Estepona

CLASS E

THE READ

Match details. Segunda Federacion, Group 4 - 7. Kick-off is Sun 18 Oct, 11:00 Lagos time. It is played at Banus Football Center, Marbella.

What's at stake. Marbella FC are 15th on 5 points after 6 games, 1 point behind Atlético Central, level on points with Las Palmas II. A win would take them above Atlético Central. CD Estepona are 6th on 10 points after 6 games, level on points with Tenerife II, level on points with Don Benito. A win would take them above Tenerife II.

Form. Marbella FC have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D W L. CD Estepona have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L W L.

The numbers. Marbella FC score 1.8 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Marbella FC average 10.1 shots (5.1 on target), 3.6 corners and 3.6 cards a game. CD Estepona score 1.8 and concede 1.4 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets. CD Estepona average 11.3 shots (4.7 on target), 5.0 corners and 4.0 cards a game.

Head to head. In the last two meetings Marbella FC have won one, drawn one and lost none. None of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in none. The last time they met, on 4 Feb 2024, it finished Marbella FC 0-0 CD Estepona.

The case against. Marbella FC's record still gives them 21% to win.

The read. CD Estepona to win. An open game. CD Estepona are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour CD Estepona. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 56%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: CD Estepona 1UP (the signs point different ways); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Marbella FC 1-2 CD Estepona (8% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

CD Estepona or Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

MAR 7 of 8 (88%) · CDE 5 of 6 (83%)85.4%

CD Estepona: the bet landed in 7 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Marbella FC: the bet landed in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 85% · CD Estepona: only games against sides at Marbella FC's level · Marbella FC: only games against sides at CD Estepona's level

CD Estepona or Over 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

MAR 6 of 8 (75%) · CDE 5 of 6 (83%)79.2%

CD Estepona: the bet landed in 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Marbella FC: the bet landed in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 79% · CD Estepona: only games against sides at Marbella FC's level · Marbella FC: only games against sides at CD Estepona's level

CD Estepona or Draw (1UP)PAGE ONLY

no price yet

MAR 4 of 5 (80%) · CDE 4 of 5 (80%)77.1%

CD Estepona scored first 3 of last 5, led or was unbeaten in 4 · led or was unbeaten in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Marbella FC trailed or failed to win in 5 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · CD Estepona: only games against sides at Marbella FC's level

Double Chance: Draw or CD EsteponaLEANPAGE ONLY

1.37

MAR 6 of 8 (75%) · CDE 5 of 6 (83%)59.1%

CD Estepona unbeaten in 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Marbella FC failed to win 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 79% · CD Estepona: only games against sides at Marbella FC's level · Marbella FC: only games against sides at CD Estepona's level

GOALS

Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

MAR 5 of 6 (83%) · CDE 7 of 8 (88%)92.6%

Marbella FC: over 0.5 goals in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · CD Estepona: over 0.5 goals in 7 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 85% · Marbella FC: only games against sides at CD Estepona's level · CD Estepona: only games against sides at Marbella FC's level

Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

MAR 4 of 6 (67%) · CDE 7 of 8 (88%)75.6%

Marbella FC: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · CD Estepona: over 1.5 goals in 7 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 77% · Marbella FC: only games against sides at CD Estepona's level · CD Estepona: only games against sides at Marbella FC's level

Over 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.93

MAR 3 of 6 (50%) · CDE 5 of 8 (62%)50.4%

Marbella FC: over 2.5 goals in 3 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · CD Estepona: over 2.5 goals in 5 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 56% · Marbella FC: only games against sides at CD Estepona's level · CD Estepona: only games against sides at Marbella FC's level

CD ESTEPONA GOALS

CD Estepona Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

MAR 7 of 8 (88%) · CDE 5 of 6 (83%)71.3%

CD Estepona scored in 7 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Marbella FC conceded in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 85% · CD Estepona: only games against sides at Marbella FC's level · Marbella FC: only games against sides at CD Estepona's level

CARDS

Over 3.5 CardsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

MAR 6 of 7 (86%) · CDE 5 of 5 (100%)92.9%

Marbella FC's games: over 3.5 cards in 6 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · CD Estepona's games: over 3.5 cards in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 93% · CD Estepona: only games against sides at Marbella FC's level

Left off the list: CD Estepona 1UP (the numbers (50%) and the records (64%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10)); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–2 7.6%

Marbella FC goals →

CD Estepona goals ↓

0-08%

1-09%

2-07%

3-03%

4-01%

5-00.4%

0-18%

1-113%

2-19%

3-14%

4-12%

5-10.4%

0-25%

1-28%

2-25%

3-23%

4-21.0%

5-20.3%

0-32%

1-33%

2-32%

3-31%

4-30.4%

5-30.1%

0-40.7%

1-41.0%

2-40.7%

3-40.3%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.2%

1-50.2%

2-50.2%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).

FORM · LAST 10

MARBELLA FCLLLWDLWDLL0.80 PPG

CD ESTEPONAWDDWDLWLWW1.80 PPG

THE NUMBERS

MARBELLA FC HOMExCD ESTEPONA AWAY

1.20SCORED A GAME1.802.00CONCEDED A GAME1.4010%CLEAN SHEETS20%67%FAILED TO SCORE17%3.57CORNERS A GAME5.003.57CARDS A GAME4.00

THE BANK

THE BANKER MENU

OVER 1.5 CARDS

–

543 OF 573

NO PRICE YET

Both sides' last 5 games point to 5.2+ cards.

Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.

THE QUALITY READ

0.83POINTS A GAME1.67-0.50GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.17–SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST–0.8LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.86LEAGUE GAMES6

CD Estepona: the quality side - more points a game, better form (last 5).

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

76%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

60%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

72%

NO · 85/90

MARBELLA FC OR DRAW

62%

NO · 80/85

CD ESTEPONA OR DRAW

58%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (6 and 6 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

MARBELLA FCxCD ESTEPONA

5GAMES50.80SCORED A GAME2.001.40CONCEDED A GAME1.802.2GOALS IN THEIR GAMES3.860%OVER 1.5 GOALS100%40%OVER 2.5 GOALS80%20%BOTH SCORE80%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES––CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 2

MARBELLA FC 1 · 50%DRAW 1CD ESTEPONA 0 · 0%

2023-09-24Marbella FC 1 – 0 CD Estepona

2024-02-04Marbella FC 0 – 0 CD Estepona

TRENDS

Marbella FC have scored in 50% of their games.

CD Estepona have scored in 90% of their games.

Marbella FC kept a clean sheet in 10% of their games.

CD Estepona kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetshead to headleague tablecornerscards