Club Mercedes vs Leones de Rosario FC
Match details. Primera C, Round of 16. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 20:30 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Club Mercedes are 5th on 47 points after 32 games, level on points with Centro Español, level on points with Victoriano Arenas. A win would take them above Centro Español. Leones de Rosario FC are 4th on 51 points after 32 games, 1 point behind Deportivo Español, 2 points clear of Central Cordoba. A win would take them above Deportivo Español. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Club Mercedes have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W W D. In this competition Club Mercedes have gone W D W W D L. Leones de Rosario FC have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L D D. In this competition Leones de Rosario FC have gone W W L D D W.
The numbers. Club Mercedes score one and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. Club Mercedes average 4.0 corners and 2.4 cards a game. Leones de Rosario FC score 0.8 and concede 0.4 a game in their last five away, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. Leones de Rosario FC average 3.7 corners and 2.6 cards a game.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 13%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Leones de Rosario FC or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); Leones de Rosario FC or Draw (1UP) (no result call); Leones de Rosario FC 1UP (no result call). Predicted score: Club Mercedes 1-1 Leones de Rosario FC (14% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).