Al-Shabab FC (SA) vs Al-Faisaly FC

Match details. Saudi Pro League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is Mon 19 Oct, 19:00 Lagos time. It is played at SHG Arena, Riyadh.

What's at stake. Al-Shabab FC (SA) are 13th on 7 points after 8 games, 2 points behind Al Riyadh, level on points with Al-Fayha. A win would take them above Al Riyadh. Al-Faisaly FC are 15th on 6 points after 8 games, 1 point behind Al-Fayha, level on points with Al-Fateh. A win would take them above Al-Fayha.

Form. Al-Shabab FC (SA) have won one, drawn five and lost four of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D L L D. Al-Faisaly FC have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D D L.

The numbers. Al-Shabab FC (SA) score 1.4 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Al-Shabab FC (SA) average 9.4 shots (4.0 on target), 6.5 corners and 2.4 cards a game, with 49% of the ball. Al-Faisaly FC score 1.3 and concede 1.8 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and three games without a goal. Al-Faisaly FC average 7.4 shots (3.6 on target), 3.0 corners and 1.7 cards a game, with 48% of the ball.

Head to head. In the last ten meetings Al-Shabab FC (SA) have won three, drawn five and lost two. Four of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, Al-Shabab FC (SA) won two and two were drawn. The last time they met, on 12 May 2022, it finished Al-Shabab FC (SA) 1-0 Al-Faisaly FC: Al-Shabab FC (SA) had 19 shots to 5, 68% of the ball, three yellow cards.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 61% against the records' 33%. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 51%; six of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.

The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to a tight game. Not everything agrees on goals: six of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.

The read. No firm call: Al-Shabab FC (SA) are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Al-Shabab FC (SA) the likelier winners; the meetings favour Al-Shabab FC (SA). Their records put over 2.5 goals at 51%.

The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.18, 75% on the records (Al-Shabab FC (SA): over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; Al-Faisaly FC: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10). Leave: Al-Faisaly FC Under 1.5 goals (Al-Shabab FC (SA)'s own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Under 4.5 Goals (Al-Shabab FC (SA) are a clear winner, no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (Al-Shabab FC (SA) are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: Al-Shabab FC (SA) 2-1 Al-Faisaly FC (9% chance).