Qadsia SC vs Fortis FC
Match details. AFC Challenge League, Group Stage. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 18:30 Lagos time. It is played at Mohammed Al Hamad Stadium, Kuwait.
Form. Qadsia SC have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L W D. Fortis FC have won six, drawn three and lost one of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D D W W. In this competition Fortis FC have gone W.
The numbers. Qadsia SC score 1.4 and concede one a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Qadsia SC average 9.7 shots (4.7 on target), 4.0 corners and 1.7 cards a game. Fortis FC score 3.1 and concede one a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets. Fortis FC average 13.8 shots (6.5 on target), 6.5 corners and 1.8 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 7% against the records' 48%.
The read. No firm call: Fortis FC are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Fortis FC the likelier winners; Fortis FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Fortis FC. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 57%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Fortis FC Over 1.5 Goals (Qadsia SC's own games don't back it (2 of 5)). Predicted score: Qadsia SC 1-2 Fortis FC (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).