AAACA

14:00Sat 17 Oct

ATL

AC Afragolese vs Atletico Lodigiani

CLASS E

Pick card Full analysis Share

THE READ

Match details. Serie D, Group G, Group G - 8. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time.

What's at stake. AC Afragolese are 12th on 7 points after 7 games, 2 points behind Albalonga, level on points with Gelbison. A win would take them above Albalonga. Atletico Lodigiani are 18th on 1 point after 7 games, 4 points behind Venafro.

Form. AC Afragolese have won one, drawn four and lost five of their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L W D. Atletico Lodigiani have won one, drawn one and lost eight of their last ten, 0.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L D.

The numbers. AC Afragolese score 0.5 and concede 1.6 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and eight games without a goal. AC Afragolese average 10.5 shots (4.0 on target), 3.5 corners and 1.5 cards a game. Atletico Lodigiani score 0.8 and concede 2.2 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Atletico Lodigiani average 9.8 shots (2.8 on target), 5.0 corners and 1.8 cards a game.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 65% against the records' 44%.

The read. No firm call: AC Afragolese are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Their goals for and against make AC Afragolese the likelier winners; AC Afragolese are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 44%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: AC Afragolese or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); AC Afragolese or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: AC Afragolese 1-1 Atletico Lodigiani (12% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

AC Afragolese or Under 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ACA 7 of 9 (78%) · ATL 8 of 9 (89%)83.3%

AC Afragolese: the bet landed in 7 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · Atletico Lodigiani: the bet landed in 8 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 83% · AC Afragolese: only games against sides at Atletico Lodigiani's level · Atletico Lodigiani: only games against sides at AC Afragolese's level

AC Afragolese or Draw (1UP)PAGE ONLY

no price yet

ACA 3 of 5 (60%) · ATL 3 of 5 (60%)73.3%

AC Afragolese scored first 2 of last 5, led or was unbeaten in 3 · led or was unbeaten in 3 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Atletico Lodigiani trailed or failed to win in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · AC Afragolese: only games against sides at Atletico Lodigiani's level · Atletico Lodigiani: only games against sides at AC Afragolese's level

AC Afragolese 1UPLEANPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ACA 2 of 5 (40%) · ATL 2 of 5 (40%)60%

AC Afragolese scored first 2 of last 5, led in 2 · led in 2 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Atletico Lodigiani trailed in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · AC Afragolese: only games against sides at Atletico Lodigiani's level · Atletico Lodigiani: only games against sides at AC Afragolese's level

GOALS

Under 5.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ACA 8 of 9 (89%) · ATL 8 of 9 (89%)94.8%

AC Afragolese: under 5.5 goals in 8 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · Atletico Lodigiani: under 5.5 goals in 8 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 89% · AC Afragolese: only games against sides at Atletico Lodigiani's level · Atletico Lodigiani: only games against sides at AC Afragolese's level

Under 4.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ACA 8 of 9 (89%) · ATL 6 of 9 (67%)87.1%

AC Afragolese: under 4.5 goals in 8 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · Atletico Lodigiani: under 4.5 goals in 6 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 78% · AC Afragolese: only games against sides at Atletico Lodigiani's level · Atletico Lodigiani: only games against sides at AC Afragolese's level

Left off the list: AC Afragolese or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); AC Afragolese or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 12.5%

AC Afragolese goals →

Atletico Lodigiani goals ↓

0-08%

1-011%

2-09%

3-05%

4-02%

5-00.6%

0-17%

1-113%

2-110%

3-15%

4-12%

5-10.7%

0-24%

1-26%

2-25%

3-23%

4-21%

5-20.3%

0-31%

1-32%

2-32%

3-30.9%

4-30.4%

5-30.1%

0-40.3%

1-40.5%

2-40.4%

3-40.2%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.1%

1-50.1%

2-50.1%

3-50.0%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

AC AFRAGOLESELLLDDDWLLD0.70 PPG

ATLETICO LODIGIANILWLLLDLLLL0.40 PPG

THE NUMBERS

AC AFRAGOLESE HOMExATLETICO LODIGIANI AWAY

0.50SCORED A GAME1.001.60CONCEDED A GAME2.2040%CLEAN SHEETS10%71%FAILED TO SCORE29%3.50CORNERS A GAME5.001.50CARDS A GAME1.80

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

1.00POINTS A GAME0.17-0.29GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME-1.50+0.5SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST-3.21.0LAST 5: POINTS A GAME0.27LEAGUE GAMES6

AC Afragolese: the quality side - more points a game, a better goal difference, better form (last 5).

AC AFRAGOLESE 2:0 HANDICAP

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389 OF 413

NO PRICE YET

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

68%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

56%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

84%

NO · 85/90

AC AFRAGOLESE OR DRAW

80%

NO · 80/85

ATLETICO LODIGIANI OR DRAW

42%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (7 and 6 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

AC AFRAGOLESExATLETICO LODIGIANI

5GAMES50.80SCORED A GAME1.201.20CONCEDED A GAME2.802.0GOALS IN THEIR GAMES4.060%OVER 1.5 GOALS80%40%OVER 2.5 GOALS80%0%BOTH SCORE80%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES––CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TRENDS

AC Afragolese have scored in 20% of their games.

Atletico Lodigiani have scored in 60% of their games.

AC Afragolese kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.

Atletico Lodigiani kept a clean sheet in 10% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetsleague tablecornerscards