Match details. Serie D, Group D, Group D - 8. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Asd Solbiatese Calcio 1911 are 13th on 6 points after 6 games, level on points with Varesina, 1 point clear of Coriano. A win would take them above Varesina. Lentigione Calcio are 3rd on 16 points after 7 games, level on points with Pro Patria, 1 point clear of Castellanzese. A win would take them above Pro Patria.
Form. Asd Solbiatese Calcio 1911 have won two, drawn three and lost three of their last eight, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L D D. Lentigione Calcio have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W D L.
The numbers. Asd Solbiatese Calcio 1911 score 0.6 and concede 1.2 a game over their last eight, with three clean sheets and four games without a goal. Asd Solbiatese Calcio 1911 average 7.2 shots (1.8 on target), 3.5 corners and 2.0 cards a game. Lentigione Calcio score 1.8 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. Lentigione Calcio average 12.5 shots (6.5 on target), 6.8 corners and 1.5 cards a game.
The case against. Asd Solbiatese Calcio 1911's record still gives them 21% to win.
The read. Lentigione Calcio to win. A tight game. Lentigione Calcio are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Lentigione Calcio. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 27%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Lentigione Calcio or Under 2.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); Lentigione Calcio Over 0.5 Goals (Asd Solbiatese Calcio 1911's own games don't back it (3 of 6)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Asd Solbiatese Calcio 1911 0-1 Lentigione Calcio (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).