MFMAR

21:00Sat 17 Oct

FER

Maringa FC PR vs Ferroviaria Araraquara SP

CLASS E

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THE BETLIVELY · 10-ODDS · 100-ODDS ·…

TOTAL GOALS

Class E

MFv

Under 3.5 Goals

Maringa FC PR v Ferroviaria Araraquara SP

Brazil - Brasileiro… · 21:00

1.23odds

81%book

-4edge

2/2angles

THE READ

Match details. Brasileiro Serie C, Final. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 21:00 Lagos time.

What's at stake. Maringa FC PR are 1st on 11 points after 6 games, level on points with Santa Cruz. Ferroviaria Araraquara SP are 1st on 11 points after 6 games, 4 points clear of Inter De Limeira. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. Maringa FC PR have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten league games, 1.8 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W D D W L. In this competition Maringa FC PR have gone W D D W L W. Ferroviaria Araraquara SP have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten league games, 1.8 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W L D W W. In this competition Ferroviaria Araraquara SP have gone W L D W W D.

The numbers. Maringa FC PR score 1.2 and concede one a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Maringa FC PR average 14.1 shots (4.8 on target), 7.4 corners and 1.9 cards a game. Ferroviaria Araraquara SP score 1.2 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Ferroviaria Araraquara SP average 15.3 shots (4.6 on target), 6.9 corners and 3.6 cards a game.

Head to head. In the last five meetings Maringa FC PR have won three, drawn one and lost one. Two of the five went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. In the last four, Maringa FC PR won three and one was drawn. The last time they met, on 4 Apr 2026, it finished Maringa FC PR 3-2 Ferroviaria Araraquara SP.

Where it pulls both ways. Ferroviaria Araraquara SP are the form side, but the meetings favour Maringa FC PR: in the last five meetings, Maringa FC PR won three, Ferroviaria Araraquara SP won one and one was drawn.

The read. No side to back. A tight game. Form and the meetings point different ways, so I back neither side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 38%. Three of the last five meetings went under 2.5.

The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.27, rated 75% (Maringa FC PR: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home; Ferroviaria Araraquara SP: under 3.5 goals in 3 of 5 away). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.09. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Predicted score: Maringa FC PR 1-1 Ferroviaria Araraquara SP (14% chance).

The agreed story. No side to back (Maringa FC PR the favourite), a tight game.

The league run. Maringa FC PR: unbeaten in their last five league games (W D D W W). Ferroviaria Araraquara SP: unbeaten in their last five league games (D W W D W).

So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Under 5.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

MAR 5 of 5 (100%) · FER 4 of 5 (80%)97%

Maringa FC PR: under 5.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home · Ferroviaria Araraquara SP: under 5.5 goals in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 95% · H2H 5 of 5 · Maringa FC PR: only games against sides at Ferroviaria Araraquara SP's level · Ferroviaria Araraquara SP: only games against sides at Maringa FC PR's level

Under 3.5 GoalsMAININ CODES

1.23

MAR 5 of 5 (100%) · FER 3 of 5 (60%)77.1%

Maringa FC PR: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home · Ferroviaria Araraquara SP: under 3.5 goals in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 80% · H2H 4 of 5 · Maringa FC PR: only games against sides at Ferroviaria Araraquara SP's level · Ferroviaria Araraquara SP: only games against sides at Maringa FC PR's level

Under 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.74

MAR 3 of 5 (60%) · FER 3 of 5 (60%)41.3%

Maringa FC PR: under 2.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home · Ferroviaria Araraquara SP: under 2.5 goals in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 70% · H2H 3 of 5 · Maringa FC PR: only games against sides at Ferroviaria Araraquara SP's level · Ferroviaria Araraquara SP: only games against sides at Maringa FC PR's level

HALVES

Under 1.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.37

MAR 4 of 5 (80%) · FER 4 of 5 (80%)87%

Maringa FC PR: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · Ferroviaria Araraquara SP: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 80% · H2H 5 of 5 · on half-time scores · Maringa FC PR: only games against sides at Ferroviaria Araraquara SP's level · Ferroviaria Araraquara SP: only games against sides at Maringa FC PR's level

2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY

1.27

MAR 5 of 5 (100%) · FER 4 of 5 (80%)81.3%

Maringa FC PR: the bet landed in 5 of 5 at home · Ferroviaria Araraquara SP: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 85% · H2H 3 of 5 · on half-time scores · Maringa FC PR: only games against sides at Ferroviaria Araraquara SP's level · Ferroviaria Araraquara SP: only games against sides at Maringa FC PR's level

Left off the list: Maringa FC PR or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); Ferroviaria Araraquara SP or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 13.5%

Maringa FC PR goals →

Ferroviaria… goals ↓

0-09%

1-010%

2-07%

3-03%

4-01%

5-00.3%

0-19%

1-113%

2-19%

3-14%

4-11%

5-10.3%

0-26%

1-28%

2-25%

3-22%

4-20.8%

5-20.2%

0-32%

1-33%

2-32%

3-30.9%

4-30.3%

5-30.1%

0-40.7%

1-40.9%

2-40.6%

3-40.3%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.2%

1-50.2%

2-50.1%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

MARINGA FC PRLDWWWLWDDW1.80 PPG

FERROVIARIA ARARAQUARA SPDWLWDWWDLW1.80 PPG

THE NUMBERS

MARINGA FC PR HOMExFERROVIARIA ARARAQUARA SP AWAY

1.00SCORED A GAME1.700.70CONCEDED A GAME1.0050%CLEAN SHEETS40%20%FAILED TO SCORE32%7.40CORNERS A GAME6.901.90CARDS A GAME3.60

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

2.18POINTS A GAME1.78+0.82GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.44+4.2SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST–2.2LAST 5: POINTS A GAME2.211LEAGUE GAMES9

No quality side: neither club is ahead on more of these.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

58%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

35%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

95%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

MARINGA FC PR OR DRAW

80%

NO · 80/85

FERROVIARIA ARARAQUARA SP OR DRAW

50%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (11 and 9 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

MARINGA FC PRxFERROVIARIA ARARAQUARA SP

5GAMES52.00SCORED A GAME1.800.80CONCEDED A GAME1.602.8GOALS IN THEIR GAMES3.4100%OVER 1.5 GOALS80%60%OVER 2.5 GOALS60%20%BOTH SCORE80%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES––CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 5

MARINGA FC PR 3 · 60%DRAW 1FERROVIARIA ARARAQUARA SP 1 · 20%

2 of 5BOTH TEAMS SCORED

3 of 5OVER 1.5 GOALS

2 of 5OVER 2.5 GOALS

1 of 5OVER 3.5 GOALS

2019-05-18Maringa FC PR 0 – 2 Ferroviaria Araraquara SP

2019-05-25Maringa FC PR 1 – 0 Ferroviaria Araraquara SP

2023-05-13Maringa FC PR 0 – 0 Ferroviaria Araraquara SP

2023-07-15Maringa FC PR 2 – 1 Ferroviaria Araraquara SP

2026-04-04Maringa FC PR 3 – 2 Ferroviaria Araraquara SP

TRENDS

Maringa FC PR have scored in 70% of their games.

Ferroviaria Araraquara SP have scored in 80% of their games.

Maringa FC PR kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games.

Ferroviaria Araraquara SP kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetshead to headleague tablecornerscards