Queens University vs Newry City AFC
Match details. Championship, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Queens University are 5th on 19 points after 11 games, 1 point behind Institute, 1 point clear of Newry City AFC. A win would take them above Institute. Newry City AFC are 6th on 18 points after 11 games, 1 point behind Queen's University, 1 point clear of Warrenpoint Town. A win would take them above Queen's University.
Form. Queens University have won six, drawn none and lost four of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L L W. In this competition Queens University have gone L W L L W W. Newry City AFC have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W D D. In this competition Newry City AFC have gone W L W D D D.
The numbers. Queens University score 2.2 and concede 0.7 a game in their last six at home, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Queens University average 4.1 corners and 1.1 cards a game. Newry City AFC score 1.8 and concede 1.9 a game over their last ten, with no clean sheets. Newry City AFC average 5.9 corners and 2.1 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last six meetings Queens University have won none, drawn one and lost five. One of the six went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. In the last four, one was drawn and Newry City AFC won three. The last time they met, on 19 Mar 2022, it finished Queens University 0-0 Newry City AFC.
Where it pulls both ways. Queens University are the form side, but the meetings favour Newry City AFC: in the last six meetings, Newry City AFC won five and one was drawn. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 57%; five of the last six meetings went under 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 57%.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Form and the meetings point different ways, so I back neither side. Five of the last six meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Newry City AFC or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Queens University 1-1 Newry City AFC (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).